Cotton Supply Increased


Cotton acreage and yield were projected higher in this month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released this morning by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.  The increase resulted from field data as opposed to survey’s and trend analysis based on historical data.  Despite the increase in harvested acreage for the 2011 crop – from 9.6 million acres in July to 9.67 this month – abandonment is still high at 29.5% of planted acres.  Estimated yield was increased to 822 pounds per acre from 800 in June and is higher than last year’s 812.  Together this would put U.S. production at 16.55 million bales,  1.26 million bales above the average pre-report expectations.  The higher production was slightly offset by increased export estimates – from 12 million bales to 12.3.  Still, ending stocks increased again in this month’s report to 3.3 million bales.  In the current fragile economic environment this will place increased pressure on cotton prices.  Today, as most commodity prices rose, cotton prices declined doe to the negative aspects of the report.

USDA Reduces Corn & Soybean Supply


This morning USDA’s World Outlook Board released it’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand report.  The report revealed what many expected: a drop in U.S. corn and soybean supplies due primarily to lower yields for both crops.  The crop has been hit with extreme heat in many predominant growing areas thus far this summer, which was exacerbated by the delayed plantings meaning the plants were at a critical stage later than normal.  Average projected U.S. corn yield was reduced from 158.7 bushels per acre in July to 153 bu/ac this month. Analysts expected a decline to 155.2 bu/ac.  Corn harvested acreage was also reduced marginally to 84.4 million from 84.9 last month.  Soybean yield is currently estimated at 41.4 bu/ac, down from 43.4 bu/ac in July and lower than pre-report estimates of 42.8 bu/ac.  Planted and harvested acreage was reduced for soybeans as well with harvested acreage now at 73.8 million.

Keep in mind this month’s projections are the first to use field data from the current crop as opposed to the historical trend (yields from 1990-2010 for corn and 1989-2009 for soybeans were used in prior estimates).

The reduction in supply for these crops was  slightly offset by projected decreases in demand.  Corn feed, ethanol, and export demand was lowered as were soybean crush and export use for the 2011 crop.