Cotton acreage and yield were projected higher in this month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released this morning by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board. The increase resulted from field data as opposed to survey’s and trend analysis based on historical data. Despite the increase in harvested acreage for the 2011 crop – from 9.6 million acres in July to 9.67 this month – abandonment is still high at 29.5% of planted acres. Estimated yield was increased to 822 pounds per acre from 800 in June and is higher than last year’s 812. Together this would put U.S. production at 16.55 million bales, 1.26 million bales above the average pre-report expectations. The higher production was slightly offset by increased export estimates – from 12 million bales to 12.3. Still, ending stocks increased again in this month’s report to 3.3 million bales. In the current fragile economic environment this will place increased pressure on cotton prices. Today, as most commodity prices rose, cotton prices declined doe to the negative aspects of the report.
Published by John Michael Riley
I joined the Department of Agricultural Economics at Oklahoma State University in the summer of 2015. My primary interests are commodity marketing, price analysis, risk management and policy. I teach approximately six undergraduate courses each year at OSU. Prior to joining Oklahoma State, I was an Extension Economist with Mississippi State University for seven years focusing on commodity markets, risk management, and agricultural policy. I reside in Stillwater, Oklahoma with my beautiful wife Jennifer, son Landon, and daughter Emery. View all posts by John Michael Riley