Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Report: Quick Summary


USDA released their annual Prospective Plantings report and quarterly Grain Stocks reports today (Mar 28). The acreage report was largely in-line with pre-report expectations, but the stocks report had quite a shock for corn supplies and a slight surprise for soybeans and wheat. As a result of the unexpected higher supplies from the stocks report markets were down rather hard. Continue reading “Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Report: Quick Summary”

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Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending Mar 22, 2013


Cash Cattle:

Yet another week of slow fed cattle trade was seen this week. Current prices appear to have both sides now waiting on the other to budge. In Texas, live cattle traded at $125/cwt late in the week. In Nebraska, live cattle sold between $124-$125/cwt. The five area region average price for live and dressed cattle on Friday was $124.77/cwt and $197.71/cwt, down $1.74 and $5.14, respectively.

Feeder steers and heifers were $1-$3/cwt lower in Oklahoma City, while calves were $3-$6/cwt lower in a light test. In Mississippi auction markets feeder steers and heifers were $5-$10/cwt lower. Cull cows were $2-$3/cwt lower and bulls were steady.

Futures:

Live cattle futures managed to move into positive territory this week. Following last Friday’s large drop, Monday hovered around those same levels for most contracts. Tuesday brought about more negative movement as continued concerns about beef consumption ruled the day. A few things were in play Wednesday to help create a turnaround. First, positioning ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report brought about some buying. Second, thoughts that market had moved too low also added some buying power. Weakness in beef and cash fed prices lef the market steady to close the week. Feeder futures were lower this week as live cattle futures held onto small gains versus last week, corn was higher, and cash feeder markets were lower in many locations throughout the week. The Cattle on Feed report was released Friday (March 22) and revealed fewer cattle than expected were placed and, as a result, fewer were on feed March 1. For more on the report visit here.

Corn futures were higher again this week. Ethanol production appears to be picking up from near non-existent levels (some sarcasim is laced in that comment, but belnding has been slow during much of 2013).  Concerns of an ‘over-sold’ market also played into the gains this week, but so much will depend on next week’s Prospective  Plantings report (to be released Thursday, March 28). Come back on Thursday for a quick recap of the report or catch the podcast (link: iTunes or via Miss. State)

Beef:

Wholesale boxed beef prices slid this week and the spread between Choice and Select further narrowed. Choice carcasses averaged $193.57/cwt, down $3.18. Select carcasses averaged $193.18/cwt, down $2.09. This leaves the spread at 39 cents per hundredweight!

March Cattle On Feed Recap


USDA released their monthly Cattle on Feed report this afternoon (Friday, March 22). At first glance, the number of cattle placed into feedlots with capacity over 1,000 head was much lower than expected (and just inside the lower bound range of expectations). Marketings were a tad higher that expected but within the range of expectations. The lower placement number left the number of cattle in feedlots on March 1 below expectations (and inside the low end of the range).

February placements of cattle into feedlots of 1,000 head capacity or greater totaled 1.482 million head. This was 13.5% below the number placed in February 2012 and 12.4% lower than the average number of February placements from 2008 to 2012. Pre-report expectations called for the drop to be around 9.0% with a range from -13.7% to -3.7% (when compared to one year ago). Thus the actual drop of 13.5% was just inside the lowest expectation. The drop in placements was fairly consistent across all states, with South Dakota and Washington reporting the only increases (but these two states only represent 5% of total placements for last month). Middle weight placements dropped the most, 600-699 and 700-799 pound placements were respectively down 19.4% and 13.2% from last year, while placements under 600 pounds and over 800 pounds were down 11.3% and 11.8% from 2012, respectively. This trend was mostly consistent in the larger reporting states as well, with the exception of Texas where light placements were down hard.

Marketings were lower this past month as well, with total marketings at 1.638 million head. This was 6.7% and 6.1% below February 2012 marketings and the February average from 2008 to 2012, respectively. Analyst had expected marketings to fall 7.3%, so the reported number was slightly higher than this expectation.

As a result of the larger drop in placements when compared to a slightly higher than expected marketings number, the total number of cattle in feedlots March 1 were lower than expected at 10.857 million head. This represents a drop of 7.0% and 4.8% compared to March 1, 2012 and the March 1 average from 2008-2012, respectively. Pre-report expectations called for the number to be 10.92 million head, or a drop of 6.5%. The range of expectations were from -7.1% to -5.4%, so the actual drop of 7.0% is just inside the range.

Given that placements and cattle on feed were just inside the lowest pre-report expectation markets should react favorably to the report when they re-open. Prices have been struggling of late due to higher slaughter weights (which typically equates to more pounds of beef) and undesirable Spring grilling weather (which is just one of numerous negative impacts on beef demand). This bullish report could provide a necessary shot in the arm to cattle prices as the market switches gears toward Spring highs and Summer lows.

Summary of the March 2013 Cattle on Feed report —

Pre-report Estimates:
(1,000 head) vs. 2011 vs. 5-Yr Avg Average Range
Placed in Feb 1,482 -13.5% -12.4% -9.0% -13.7% -3.7%
Marketed in Feb 1,638 -6.7% -6.1% -7.3% -8.8% -4.0%
On Feed, Mar 1 10,857 -7.0% -4.8% -6.5% -7.1% -5.4%

Summary of placements by state —

AZ CA CO ID IA KS NE
< 600 lbs. N/A N/A 0.0% N/A N/A -14.3% 0.0%
600-699 lbs. N/A N/A -16.7% N/A N/A -33.3% -14.3%
700-799 lbs. N/A N/A 25.0% N/A N/A -30.8% -9.1%
800+ lbs. N/A N/A -15.4% N/A N/A 0.0% -23.5%
TOTAL -23.3% -12.7% -15.8% -2.7% -29.0% -31.4% -26.3%
OK SD TX WA Other [1] U.S.
< 600 lbs. N/A N/A -20.7% N/A -5.3% -11.3%
600-699 lbs. N/A N/A -17.6% N/A -13.3% -19.4%
700-799 lbs. N/A N/A 5.3% N/A -28.7% -13.2%
800+ lbs. N/A N/A 0.0% N/A -8.0% -11.8%
TOTAL -26.0% 25.0% -12.8% 20.7% -22.2% -21.0%
[1] Individual weight categories include states that are N/A

Small Grains Report: March 22, 2013


— The following is from Dr. Brian Williams —

Nearby May wheat futures closed up a penny Friday to close the week at $7.29/bu. May corn finished down 6 cents at 7.26, but corn did finished up on the week. Soybeans also finished down on the day with May soybeans finishing down 8 cents on the day. Corn and wheat exports were weak while U.S. soybean exporters are taking advantage of the bottleneck at Brazil’s ports. A somewhat positive weather outlook was released yesterday by NOAA. Much of the Central and Northern Plains are expected to see normal precipitation and some relief to ongoing drought conditions over the next 90 days. The Eastern Corn Belt is expected to receive above-normal precipitation, which could delay planting but will also replenish soil moisture. Rainfall in the Southeast has kept producers out of the fields this spring and many are awaiting dryer weather to get planting underway. Looking into next week, the big news will be the first USDA acreage report of the year scheduled to be released midweek.

Small Grains Prices

March 15, 2013

March 22, 2013

Change

Nearby Corn Futures

$7.17

$7.26

$0.09

Mississippi Corn*

$7.40

$7.51

$0.11

Nearby Soybeans Futures

$14.26

$14.40

$0.14

Mississippi Soybeans*

$14.34

$14.57

$0.23

Nearby Chicago Wheat Futures

$7.23

$7.29

$0.06

Mississippi Wheat*

$7.17

$7.23

$0.06

*Mississippi prices are average March 21, 2013 prices from Greeneville, Belzoni, Greenwood, and Indianola.

Livestock Price and Production Tables: Week Ending Mar 22, 2013


 

Mississippi Auction Markets
Weight Steers Heifers Slaughter Cows, Bulls, and Replacements
300-350 $170 $190 $160 $170 Boning (80-85% lean) $74 $85
350-400 $170 $190 $150 $160 Boning (high-yielding) $85 $95
400-450 $160 $175 $140 $150 Lean $70 $78
450-500 $150 $160 $135 $150 Bulls, YG 1-2, <1,500 lbs $85 $96
500-550 $150 $160 $140 $148 Bulls, YG 1-2, >1,500 lbs $95 $110
550-600 $140 $150 $125 $140  
600-650 $130 $142 $110 $129 Sm/Mdm Cow-Calf Pairs $1,300 $1,800
650-700 $122 $130 $110 $129 Mdm/Lg Cow-Calf Pairs $900 $1,400
700-750 $122 $133 $110 $123 Sm/Mdm Replacements $1,000 $1,400
750-800 $122 $133 $110 $123 Mdm/Lg Replacements $750 $1,100
Volume1 (head): vs Last Week vs Last Year  
under 600 lbs -3.7% -23.1%
over 600 lbs -14.2% -26.4%
Slaughter Cows 5.9% -39.4%
Rep. Females 9.7% -17.4%
Note: Steer and heifer prices are for medium and large frame, numbers 1-2.
1- Four Week Rolling Average
Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service

Futures Prices
Month Live Cattle Change* Feeder Cattle Change* Corn Change* Soybeans Change*
Mar     $134.55 -2.13        
Apr $126.38 +0.67 $137.95 -1.25        
May     $140.25 -0.82 $7.26 +0.09 $14.41 +0.15
Jun $121.38 +0.13            
Jul         $7.09 +0.08 $14.18 +0.07
Aug $123.08 +0.67 $147.95 -0.15     $13.73 +0.03
Sep     $149.78 -0.45 $5.97 +0.10 $13.01 -0.00
Oct $127.08 +0.42 $151.40 +0.15        
Nov     $151.70 -0.48     $12.64 +0.03
Dec $128.25 +0.40     $5.65 +0.04    
Jan     $150.20 -2.55     $12.68 +0.02
Feb $128.80 +0.25            
Source: CME Group
Note: Cattle prices in $/cwt; Corn & Soybean prices in $/bu
*Change from last Friday’s close.

Feeder Calf Markets (price for M&L #1-2 steers)
  750-800 lbs 500-550 lbs
Mississippi $127.50 $155.00
OKC $129.81 $148.00
Kentucky $121.99 $150.12
Joplin, MO $127.16 $165.61
Tulia, TX $130.50 $148.50

Price and Production Summary
  This Week Last Week Last Year
5-Area Fed Steer Price      
   Live $124.77 $126.51 $126.59
   Dressed $197.71 $202.85 $203.14
OKC Feeder Cattle Prices      
   7.5-8 wt M&L #1 steer $135.80 $135.00 $152.79
   5-5.5 wt M&L #1 steer $168.80 $172.35 $194.40
BBCV (weekly avg.)      
   600-900 lb Choice cutout $193.57 $196.75 $189.62
   600-900 lb Select cutout $193.18 $195.27 $188.11
   Choice Rib Value $287.08 $286.18 $282.41
   Choice Chuck Value $168.91 $173.70 $151.63
Other Livestock Prices      
   Barrows and Gilts (base price) $71.26 $73.77 $81.92
   Pork Carcass Cutout $77.98 $78.45 $80.50
   Georgia Dock Broilers $101.86 $101.58 $92.74
   Georgia Dock B/S Breasts $175.00 $170.50 $163.50
   Georgia Dock Leg Quarters $54.50 $54.50 $54.50
Feed Prices ($/ton)      
   Whole Cottonseed1 $280.00 $280.00 $255.00
   Cottonseed Meal1 $307.50 $305.00 $237.50
   Corn Gluten Meal (60%)1 $620.00 $620.00 $510.00
   Soybean Hulls1 $210.00 $210.00 $160.00
   Soybean Meal (48%)1 $447.30 $471.00 $372.90
   Wheat Midds1 $265.00 N/A $195.00
   Corn Gluten Feed2 $215.00 $225.00 $148.00
   Corn Gluten Pellets (21%)3 $265.00 $265.00 $212.50
   Soybean Hull Pellets3 $237.50 $227.50 $190.00
   Distillers’ Dried Grains4 $272.50 $270.00 $214.50
   Rice Bran5 $182.50 $185.00 $142.50
Meat Production (million lbs)  
   Beef 476.9 482.3 475.3
   Pork 451.7 457.0 444.8
Slaughter (1,000 head)  
   Cattle 601 606 605
   Hogs 2,176 2,203 2,132
   Broilers/Fryers 157,242 154,574 152,864
Avg. Dressed Weight  
   Cattle 796 798 792
   Hogs 208 207 209
Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service
1-Memphis; 2-St. Louis; 3-Alabama; 4-E. Corn Belt; 5-Arkansas

Southeastern Fertilizer and Farm Diesel Prices
  This Week Last Week Last Year Y-o-Y

% Change

Liquid N (28% spread) $ 449.50 $ 449.50 $ 430.00 4.5%
Ammonium Nitrate $ 507.00 $ 507.00 $ 492.50 2.9%
13-13-13 $ 507.50 $ 507.50 $ 515.00 -1.5%
17-17-17 $ 596.00 $ 596.00 $ 580.00 2.8%
DAP (18%N, 46%P) $ 652.50 $ 652.50 $ 671.50 -2.8%
Potash $ 625.00 $ 625.00 $ 647.00 -3.4%
Lime $ 37.50 $ 37.50 $ 37.50 0.0%
Farm Diesel $ 3.54 $ 3.54 $ 3.68 -3.9%
Source:  USDA- AL Dept of Ag, Market News, Montgomery, AL
Fertilizer prices are $/ton, Diesel prices are $/gal for <1,000 gallons

Southeastern Hay Market Report
  This Week Last Week
  Good Premium Good Premium
Bermuda        
4×5 Roll $70.00 $100.00 $71.61 $100.42
5×5 or 5×6 Roll NQ $88.28 NQ $80.00
Bahia        
4×5 Roll NQ $100.00 NQ $100.00
5×5 or 5×6 Roll NQ $86.67 NQ $86.67
Prices are $/ton
Source:  USDA-AL Dept of Ag, Market News, Montgomery, AL

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending Mar 15, 2013


I apologize for my recent sporadic posting. Hopefully things have slowed down enough to catch my breath. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions let me know. 

Cash Cattle:

Cash trade slowed this week on the heels of strong prices last week. Packers are assumed to be working off contracts for this week’s slaughter and staying on the sidelines for the time being in the cash market. In the Central and Southern Plains (Kansas and south) the volume of trade was light but called at $127/cwt on a live basis. In Nebraska live and dressed cattle were lower at $126-$127/cwt and $201/cwt, respectively. In the rest of the Western Cornbelt, trade was light at $124-$125/cwt on a live basis and $200/cwt for dressed cattle. Collectively, the five-area live price finished the week at $126.51, down $1.21 versus last week. Slaughter weights appear to be taking a hit from the recent blast of winter weather. Dressed weights are down about four to five pounds from weights seen just two weeks ago.

Feeder steers were $2-$4/cwt lower and feeder heifers were $1-$3/cwt lower in Oklahoma City, while calves were too lightly tested to call a trend. In Mississippi auction markets feeder steers and heifers were steady. Cull cows were $2/cwt higher and bulls sold $1/cwt higher.

Futures:

Live cattle futures were lower this week. Carry-over from last week was seen early in the week. A surge in cash prices helped buoy prices to close out last week and many expected the trend to continue. However, cash trade did not develop for the most part and by mid-week concern was mounting. This became more evident as the week ended with Thursday and Friday providing the major blow to prices. Those with long (a.k.a. “bought”) positions started selling to exit those positions which pushed prices lower. A bright spot has been exports, which are currently 3.8% ahead of 2012’s pace. The beef market most likely will not eclipse the record pace set in 2011, but given the short supplies exports have been rather resilient thus far in 2013. Feeder futures had a similar week, breaking with live cattle briefly in the middle of the week as soybeans were under pressure.

Corn futures were higher this week as the market rallied on last week’s supply/demand report, which revealed total domestic corn use higher by 100 million bushels stemming from the feeding industry (higher imports and lower exports left the amount expected to be carried over unchanged at 632 million bushels).

Beef:

Wholesale boxed beef prices continue to march higher. Choice finished with a weekly average of $196.75/cwt, up $1.73, and Select finished at $195.27/cwt, up $2.39, and leaving the Choice-Select spread at a very narrow $1.47/cwt. The current value of Select boxed beef sets a new (non-inflation adjusted) record previously set in early March of last year. Both Choice and Select are up approximately $15/cwt over the past three to four weeks.

Livestock Price and Production Tables: Week Ending Mar 15, 2013


Sorry for the recent hiatus…

Mississippi Auction Markets
Weight Steers Heifers Slaughter Cows, Bulls, and Replacements
300-350 $180 $200 $170 $180 Boning (80-85% lean) $77 $90
350-400 $180 $200 $165 $170 Boning (high-yielding) $90 $94
400-450 $175 $190 $150 $165 Lean $72 $78
450-500 $165 $175 $150 $165 Bulls, YG 1-2, <1,500 lbs $84 $97
500-550 $155 $170 $140 $148 Bulls, YG 1-2, >1,500 lbs $95 $111
550-600 $145 $155 $130 $140  
600-650 $130 $145 $122 $130 Sm/Mdm Cow-Calf Pairs $1,200 $1,600
650-700 $130 $145 $122 $130 Mdm/Lg Cow-Calf Pairs $950 $1,300
700-750 $114 $130 $105 $110 Sm/Mdm Replacements $1,100 $1,500
750-800 $114 $130 $105 $110 Mdm/Lg Replacements $800 $1,250
Volume1 (head): vs Last Week vs Last Year  
under 600 lbs 7.6% -22.9%
over 600 lbs 20.8% -14.6%
Slaughter Cows 6.6% -42.2%
Rep. Females 1.5% -26.2%
Note: Steer and heifer prices are for medium and large frame, numbers 1-2.
1- Four Week Rolling Average
Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service

Continue reading “Livestock Price and Production Tables: Week Ending Mar 15, 2013”