Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending Apr 19, 2013


Cash Cattle:

Cash cattle sales were very light this week. In the Southern Plains (Texas Panhandle and SW Kansas) live cattle traded at $126/cwt. Similarly, in Nebraska, limited movement was reported at $126/cwt and $201-$202/cwt for live and dressed sales, respectively. Trade was too low in the Western Cornbelt to call any trends. The five-area fed price finished Friday at  $125.27/cwt versus $127.23/cwt last Friday. Continue reading “Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending Apr 19, 2013”

Corn, Soybean and Wheat Market Update


— From Dr. Brian Williams —

It has been a slow news week for small grains markets. Nearby May wheat futures closed up 6 cents Friday to close the week at $7.09/bu. Export news for the week has been positive, but wheat has finished lower on the week compared. May corn finished up 7 cents at $6.52, but is down 6 cents on the week. Planting progress has been slow in the Corn Belt with cold, wet weather across much of the region. Current corn plantings are at 2% compared to a five year average of 7%. Soybeans closed down on the day with May soybeans finishing down 2 cents at $14.28. Mississippi corn planting was 54% complete as of Sunday, significantly behind the 5-year average of 82%. With recent rains in Mississippi as well as continued wet conditions throughout this week in the Midwest, it does not look like planting progress will gain much ground in the short term.

Small Grains Prices

April 12, 2013

April 19, 2013

Change

Nearby Corn Futures

$6.58

$6.52

-$0.06

Mississippi Corn*

$6.67

$6.53

-$0.14

Nearby Soybeans Futures

$14.13

$14.28

$0.15

Mississippi Soybeans*

$14.26

$14.44

$0.18

Nearby Chicago Wheat Futures

$7.14

$7.09

-$0.05

Mississippi Wheat*

$6.98

$6.86

-$0.12

*Mississippi prices are average April 18, 2013 prices from Greeneville, Belzoni, Greenwood, and Indianola.

April Cattle on Feed


*Updated April 22: I had an error in my calculation for March marketings.*

To say the report was a shocker might be an understatement. Placements in March were well above expectations at 1.899 million head, up 6.0% from last year and much higher than the most pessimistic guess from pre-report analysts. Marketings were off too at 1.771 million head, down 7.7% from last year, while analysts expected marketings to be down 4.9%. This left the number of cattle on feed at 10.909 million head, down 5.0% from last year and above the average pre-report expectation that looked for a drop of 6.1% compared to April 1, 2012.

The increased placements largely stemmed from Kansas and Texas, up 13.3% and 25.6% respectively. These two states are major players in the wheat grazing world and keep in mind February was not the best for wheat. It is highly likely that cattle were lighter than needed during February and producers held them longer and shipped them into feedlots during March (February 2013 placements were the lowest on record). Taken together, February and March placements totaled 3.381 million head. Analysts expected 3.318 million over these two months. Over the two month period the expectation was for placements to drop 5.3% compared to last year, while the actual amount of placements was 3.7% lower. So, in short, the March placements number was surprising at first but does make sense after some thought. Unfortunately, the market will most likely make a correction when they reopen.

Listen to our podcast that attempts to shed more light on the report by visiting here or, for iTunes users, here.

— — — —

Summary:

Pre-report Estimates:
(1,000 head) vs. 2012 vs. 5-Yr Avg Average Range
Placed in Mar 1,899 6.0% 4.3% -0.9% -7.9% 3.2%
Marketed in Mar 1,771 -7.7% -6.1% -6.5% -7.6% -4.9%
On Feed, Apr 1 10,909 -5.0% -3.2% -6.1% -7.3% -4.5%

Placements by Weight and State: 

AZ CA CO ID IA KS NE
< 600 lbs. N/A N/A -16.7% N/A N/A 0.0% 10.0%
600-699 lbs. N/A N/A 20.0% N/A N/A -7.7% -14.3%
700-799 lbs. N/A N/A 22.2% N/A N/A 4.0% -8.3%
800+ lbs. N/A N/A -8.3% N/A N/A 40.0% -12.5%
TOTAL 18.5% 5.7% 3.1% -23.5% -2.7% 13.3% -9.1%
OK SD TX WA Other [1] U.S.
< 600 lbs. N/A N/A 9.7% N/A 5.3% 5.1%
600-699 lbs. N/A N/A 27.8% N/A 0.0% 5.0%
700-799 lbs. N/A N/A 43.5% N/A -15.8% 8.0%
800+ lbs. N/A N/A 28.6% N/A -5.4% 5.3%
TOTAL -1.8% -28.9% 25.6% 0.0% -3.2% 6.0%
[1] Individual weight categories include states that are N/A

Livestock Price and Production Tables: Week Ending Apr 19, 2013


 

Mississippi Auction Markets
Weight Steers Heifers Slaughter Cows, Bulls, and Replacements
300-350 $175 $190 $140 $150 Boning (80-85% lean) $72 $77
350-400 $162 $175 $140 $150 Boning (high-yielding) $77 $85
400-450 $150 $160 $135 $146 Lean $60 $75
450-500 $145 $150 $135 $146 Bulls, YG 1-2, <1,500 lbs $85 $92
500-550 $135 $148 $125 $139 Bulls, YG 1-2, >1,500 lbs $91 $104
550-600 $135 $148 $125 $139  
600-650 $125 $135 $115 $128 Sm/Mdm Cow-Calf Pairs $1,200 $1,600
650-700 $125 $135 $115 $128 Mdm/Lg Cow-Calf Pairs $850 $1,200
700-750 $115 $126 $109 $118 Sm/Mdm Replacements $900 $1,250
750-800 $115 $126 $109 $118 Mdm/Lg Replacements $800 $1,100
Volume1 (head): vs Last Week vs Last Year  
under 600 lbs -7.1% -21.7%
over 600 lbs 40.2% -5.1%
Slaughter Cows -5.5% -37.3%
Rep. Females -6.4% -10.8%
Note: Steer and heifer prices are for medium and large frame, numbers 1-2.
1- Four Week Rolling Average
Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service

Futures Prices
Month Live Cattle Change* Feeder Cattle Change* Corn Change* Soybeans Change*
Apr $126.20 +0.20 $133.75 -4.40        
May     $138.88 -2.18 $6.52 -0.07 $14.28 +0.15
Jun $121.38 +0.55         $13.83 +0.03
Jul         $6.33 -0.08 $13.83 +0.03
Aug $121.73 +0.27 $145.90 -2.17     $13.29 -0.11
Sep     $148.13 -2.05 $5.72 -0.05 $12.58 -0.15
Oct $125.25 -0.03 $149.75 -1.30        
Nov     $150.63 -1.00     $12.13 -0.19
Dec $126.33 -0.52     $5.47 -0.03    
Jan     $149.63 -1.00     $12.21 -0.17
Feb $127.00 -0.95            
Mar     $150.90 -3.10 $5.57 -0.03 $12.28 -0.15
Source: CME Group
Note: Cattle prices in $/cwt; Corn & Soybean prices in $/bu
*Change from last Friday’s close.

Feeder Calf Markets (price for M&L #1-2 steers)
  750-800 lbs 500-550 lbs
Mississippi $120.50 $141.50
OKC $128.34 $147.00
Kentucky $125.10 $140.97
Joplin, MO $130.72 $157.30
Tulia, TX $126.00 $147.00

Price and Production Summary
  This Week Last Week Last Year
5-Area Fed Steer Price      
   Live $125.27 $127.23 $122.68
   Dressed $200.00 $199.38 $198.52
OKC Feeder Cattle Prices      
   7.5-8 wt M&L #1 steer $130.04 $138.32 $151.31
   5-5.5 wt M&L #1 steer $164.25 $172.42 $191.29
BBCV (weekly avg.)      
   600-900 lb Choice cutout $190.51 $190.60 $185.12
   600-900 lb Select cutout $184.04 $185.44 $183.12
   Choice Rib Value $275.08 $275.99 $267.93
   Choice Chuck Value $159.94 $160.00 $152.05
Other Livestock Prices      
   Barrows and Gilts (base price) $76.35 $79.89 $81.02
   Pork Carcass Cutout $83.52 $81.53 $77.34
   Georgia Dock Broilers $102.75 $102.57 $92.63
   Georgia Dock B/S Breasts $185.00 $179.50 $160.00
   Georgia Dock Leg Quarters $55.50 $55.00 $54.00
Feed Prices ($/ton)      
   Whole Cottonseed1 $275.00 $280.00 $258.00
   Cottonseed Meal1 $315.00 $320.00 $245.00
   Corn Gluten Meal (60%)1 $580.00 $560.00 $525.00
   Soybean Hulls1 $240.00 $240.00 $150.00
   Soybean Meal (48%)1 $427.30 $427.30 $399.90
   Wheat Midds1 $255.00 N/A $140.00
   Corn Gluten Feed2 $190.00 $190.00 $151.50
   Corn Gluten Pellets (21%)3 $260.00 $260.00 $205.00
   Soybean Hull Pellets3 $250.00 $250.00 $182.50
   Distillers’ Dried Grains4 $244.00 $244.00 $211.00
   Rice Bran5 $185.00 $187.50 $127.50
Meat Production (million lbs)  
   Beef 484.3 478.5 467.5
   Pork 443.9 431.9 435.2
Slaughter (1,000 head)  
   Cattle 615 606 598
   Hogs 2,139 2,082 2,084
   Broilers/Fryers 153,578 155,999 155,261
Avg. Dressed Weight  
   Cattle 789 791 784
   Hogs 207 207 209
Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service
1-Memphis; 2-St. Louis; 3-Alabama; 4-E. Corn Belt; 5-Arkansas

Southeastern Fertilizer and Farm Diesel Prices
  This Week Last Week Last Year Y-o-Y

% Change

Liquid N (28% spread) $ 444.50 $ 444.50 $ 460.00 -3.4%
Ammonium Nitrate $ 510.00 $ 510.00 $ 530.00 -3.8%
13-13-13 $ 507.50 $ 507.50 $ 520.00 -2.4%
17-17-17 $ 599.00 $ 599.00 $ 596.50 0.4%
DAP (18%N, 46%P) $ 652.50 $ 652.50 $ 671.50 -2.8%
Potash $ 615.00 $ 615.00 $ 647.00 -4.9%
Lime $ 37.50 $ 37.50 $ 37.50 0.0%
Farm Diesel $ 3.45 $ 3.50 $ 3.66 -5.9%
Source:  USDA- AL Dept of Ag, Market News, Montgomery, AL
Fertilizer prices are $/ton, Diesel prices are $/gal for <1,000 gallons

Southeastern Hay Market Report
  This Week Last Week
  Good Premium Good Premium
Bermuda        
4×5 Roll $80.00 $96.15 $70.00 $96.95
5×5 or 5×6 Roll NQ NQ NQ $80.00
Bahia        
4×5 Roll NQ $100.00 NQ $100.00
5×5 or 5×6 Roll NQ $73.39 NQ $86.67
Prices are $/ton
Source:  USDA-AL Dept of Ag, Market News, Montgomery, AL

 

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending Apr 12, 2013


Cash Cattle:

Cash cattle in the Souther Plains were at $127/cwt on a live basis as of Wednesday. In Nebraska, live and dressed sales were at $127.50-$128/cwt and $202/cwt, respectively. Western Cornbelt cattle trade was light, but called at $127/cwt live and $199-$202/cwt. Trade continues to be light, which is indicative of tighter supplies and, more importantly, that feeders and packers are not motivated.

In Oklahoma City, feeder steers were steady to $3/cwt lower and feeder heifers were steady to $2/cwt lower. Calves were steady to $2/cwt higher in OKC.  In Mississippi auction markets feeder steers and heifers were $2-$5/cwt lower, while cull cows and bulls were steady.

Futures:

Live cattle futures ended lower on Friday compared to the previous Friday’s close. Losses were larger as the contract month moved further out. The fed market continues to search for positive traction, while cold (in some parts, wintry) weather continues to dampen grilling spirits. Friday’s consumer sentiment report came in at 72.3, much lower than last month’s 78.6 and lower than the expected 78.5 number. This too is concerning for beef and cattle prices, because a sour consumer typically passes on high value middle meat cuts. Corn prices rallied and cash feeders were lower this week, which pushed feeder futures much lower. If any positive news could be found this week it was in the monthly supply and demand report that indicated previous estimates of beef supplies might have been on the high side. USDA lowered their beef production estimate for 2013 to 24.88 billion pounds, compared to 25.11 projected last month. Lower carcass weights and ever tightening supplies are the likely reason.

Corn futures finished higher this week. The sharp drop of two weeks ago looks to have been a bit of overkill. The expected corn carry-over amount from Wednesday’s supply and demand report was lower than expected which also helped push prices higher.

Beef:

Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower this week. Choice finished with a weekly average of $190.60/cwt, down $0.70, and Select finished at $185.44/cwt, down $2.84.

Livestock Price and Production Tables: Week Ending Apr 12, 2013


Mississippi Auction Markets
Weight Steers Heifers Slaughter Cows, Bulls, and Replacements
300-350 $170 $185 $155 $172 Boning (80-85% lean) $75 $80
350-400 $170 $185 $155 $172 Boning (high-yielding) $80 $90
400-450 $150 $170 $140 $150 Lean $63 $75
450-500 $150 $170 $140 $150 Bulls, YG 1-2, <1,500 lbs $84 $95
500-550 $140 $155 $135 $145 Bulls, YG 1-2, >1,500 lbs $92 $106
550-600 $140 $155 $120 $135
600-650 $129 $145 $115 $125 Sm/Mdm Cow-Calf Pairs $1,200 $1,600
650-700 $129 $145 $115 $125 Mdm/Lg Cow-Calf Pairs $950 $1,200
700-750 $112 $128 $100 $110 Sm/Mdm Replacements $850 $1,350
750-800 $112 $128 $100 $110 Mdm/Lg Replacements $750 $1,075
Volume1 (head): vs Last Week vs Last Year
under 600 lbs 6.0% -14.6%
over 600 lbs -5.9% -30.7%
Slaughter Cows 6.2% -35.4%
Rep. Females 3.5% -4.0%
Note: Steer and heifer prices are for medium and large frame, numbers 1-2.
1- Four Week Rolling Average
Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service

Continue reading “Livestock Price and Production Tables: Week Ending Apr 12, 2013”

April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates: Crop Recap


Soybeans

U.S. ending stocks for soybeans remained unchanged in the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report at 125 million bushels. Analysts were expecting the ending stocks number to be 137 million bushels, with a range from 107 to 160 million bushels, given the slightly higher quarterly stocks number from last month that indicated demand had been slipping. Soybean crush and exports were both revised up slightly from last month’s report, however those changes were offset by an equal decrease in residual use. Given the offsetting changes, the stocks-to-use ratio remained unchanged at 4.1%. Soybeans futures were largely unaffected by the report with the nearby May contract closing down 2.6 cents at $13.92/bu.

Corn

USDA’s April projections of U.S. corn ending stocks for the 2012/13 marketing year were pegged at 757 million bushels, 135 million higher than March projections. This was, however, lower than the average pre-report expectation of 824 million bushels, but following last month’s surprising Grain Stocks number analysts were all over the board with guesses for this month’s WASDE ending stocks (expectations ranged from 625 to 925 million bushels). Much of the difference comes from the 150 million bushel decrease in projected feed and residual use, although industrial use and ethanol use were both revised higher. Corn exports were projected to be 25 million bushels lower compared to last month’s projections. With many traders still recovering from the shock of the stocks report a couple of weeks ago and thus uncertain of where USDA would peg this month’s number, it is unsurprising that corn futures markets had a minimal response to the latest WASDE report. Corn’s stocks versus use currently sits at 6.8% compared to 5.6% last month. Global corn ending stocks were raised to 125.29 million metric tons, with the U.S. and China each accounting for 40% of the increase. May Corn contracts finished up 4.6 cents today at $6.49/bu.

Cotton

Supply and demand estimates for cotton, while not mundane, were largely in-line with last month’s projections. Interestingly yield was raised 14 pounds per acre to 880 based on information from the final Cotton Ginnings report. This was partially offset by an increase in demand. Exports were raised 250,000 bales to 13.0 million. Ending stocks remained unchanged at 4.2 million bales and the ratio of stocks versus use is now at 25.6% compared to 26.0% last month. Analysts had expected the ending stock number to drop to 4.1 million bales due to the higher pace of exports, but the larger yield appears to have not been accounted for. Global cotton ending stocks were raised to 82.45 million bales, up from 81.74. China’s ending stocks are currently projected at 45.61 million bales, up 1.5 million due to increased imports, and therefore they now account for 55.3% of total world ending stocks. Cotton futures still managed to end the day higher with the nearby May contract ending the day at 85.37 cents/pound, up 0.73, and December ended at 86.57 cents/pound, up 0.78.

Wheat

Today’s WASDE report appears to have had the most significant impact on the wheat market. Ending stocks for all wheat were revised up 15 million bushels compared to last month at 731 million bushels. The additional bushels are a result of lower feed and residual use than expected, however all other numbers remained unchanged. The higher than expected wheat ending stocks pushed the May wheat contract down 12 cents on the day to close at $6.96/bu

Rice

All rice ending stocks projections were raised to 34.1 million hundredweight, up from 29.1 last month. The increase stems from larger long- and medium/short-grain stocks, but with long-grain getting the bigger bump. Domestic demand is the culprit of the higher stocks; with this number decreasing from 125 million hundredweight in last month’s report to 120 projected this month. Rough rice futures ended mildly lower on the day with the nearby May contract closing at $15.675/cwt, down 3 cents/cwt, and the September contract finished at $15.42/cwt, down 4.5 cents/cwt.