Crop Market Update (with Acreage and Stocks report) – Week Ending June 28


Friday’s acreage report came as a big surprise to many. Most analysts were expecting corn acreage to be revised down about 2 million acres to 95.34 million; however the USDA’s acreage report estimated corn acres at 97.38 million. This was a slight increase over the March Prospective Plantings report of 97.28, which has been the baseline since that time. National corn stocks were reported at 2.76 billion bushels, slightly below the expected 2.85 billion bushels. Nearby July corn futures were impacted by the grain stocks report, closing up 12 cents on the day but new crop futures took a hit in response to the acreage report with September 2013 corn futures closing down 25 cents and December corn closing down 27 cents. With an acreage report estimate of 77.73 million acres, soybeans came in slightly below the expected 78.02 million acres predicted by many analysts but above the 77.13 million acres reported in the June WASDE report (which had been unchanged from March’s report). Soybean stocks came in slightly lower than expected at 435 million bushels compared to the pre-report guess of 441 million bushels. July soybean futures responded positively the reports, closing up 16 cents on the day to finish off a strong week that saw an increase of 71 cents. September new crop soybeans closed down 14 cents on the day. The wheat acreage estimate was surprisingly higher than expected as well. USDA reported all wheat acres at 56.53 million acres compared to an expectation of 55.75 million acres. Winter wheat acreage is reported as 2% higher than the previous estimate as well. Wheat in storage was 32 million bushels lower than analysts expected at 718 million bushels. The reports negatively impacted wheat markets with nearby July wheat finishing down 15 cents on the day and 50 cents on the week.

Small Grains Prices

June 21, 2013

June 28, 2013

Change

Nearby Corn Futures

$6.61

$6.79

$0.18

Mississippi Corn*

$6.97

$7.02

$0.05

Nearby Soybeans Futures

$14.93

$15.64

$0.71

Mississippi Soybeans*

$15.01

$15.67

$0.66

Nearby Chicago Wheat Futures

$6.98

$6.48

-$0.50

Mississippi Wheat*

$6.69

$6.35

-$0.34

*Mississippi prices are average June 27, 2013 prices from Greeneville, Belzoni, Greenwood, and Indianola.

Cotton acres were reported at 10.251 million (10.025 for Upland and 0.226 for Pima). This compares to March’s Prospective Plantings acreage number of 10.026 million (9.820 for Upland and 0.206 for Pima). Still, nearby cotton continued to slide. The harvest time December contract moved mostly sideways during the week.

Cotton Prices (cents/pound)

June 21, 2013

June 28, 2013

Change

July Cotton Futures

85.15

82.71

-2.44

December Cotton Futures

84.64

83.80

-0.84

South Delta Cotton Quote*

82.68

82.61

-0.07

Note: Futures prices are from ICE and cash quote is from USDA, AMS

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