Crop Market Update: Week Ending Jul 12, 2013


Warm, dry conditions in the Corn Belt along with Thursday’s WASDE report have been the biggest market drivers this week. Corn production was revised lower in the July WASDE report on lower expected harvested acres; however ending stocks were revised up 10 million bushels from last month’s estimate to 1.87 billion bushels. Nearby September corn futures were down sharply on the day but 20 cents higher on the week. The U.S. and Mississippi corn crops both look good at this point, with 68% of the U.S. crop and 66% of the Mississippi crop rated good or excellent, but hot, dry weather is expected over the next week in parts of the Corn Belt at the same time a significant portion of the corn crop in the area is expected to begin silking. Soybean ending stocks were estimated at 295 million bushels in the latest WASDE report, about 25 million bushels more than expected. Soybean conditions are looking great in Mississippi as well as across the country with 74% of the Mississippi crop rated good or excellent and 77% of the U.S. crop in the same category. August soybean futures closed down sharply on Friday, but were 16 cents higher on the week. While the USDA has been positive about the outlook of both the corn and soybean crop, the market seems to still have a weather premium in response to the planting delays earlier this spring. While the warm, dry week ahead could impact corn yields, soybeans should not be impacted much for at least another couple of weeks, bringing plenty of opportunity for rain showers to pass through. The winter wheat crop continues to look better than expected with the USDA boosting expected yields by 1.6 bu/acre over last month. However, ending stocks were revised 83 million bushels lower, mostly as a result of increased export sales. acreage is reported as 2% higher than the previous estimate as well. September wheat futures closed 21 cents higher on the week.

Small Grains Prices ($/bu except were noted)

July 5, 2013

July 12, 2013

Change

Nearby Corn Futures

$5.25

$5.45

+$0.20

Mississippi Corn*

$6.28

$6.56

+$0.28

Nearby Soybeans Futures

$14.32

$14.29

-$0.03

Mississippi Soybeans*

$15.79

$15.95

+$0.16

Nearby Chicago Wheat Futures

$6.60

$6.81

+$0.21

Mississippi Wheat*

$6.29

$6.49

+$0.20

Sep Rough Rice Futures ($/cwt)

$14.955

$15.205

+$0.25

*Mississippi prices are average July 11, 2013 prices from Greeneville, Belzoni, Greenwood, and Indianola.

U.S. Cotton ending stocks for the upcoming year were projected at 2.90 million bales yesterday (Jul 11) by USDA. Production was unchanged from last month despite a decrease in projected harvested acres as yield was raised. Lackluster exports continue to be a drag on the price, but a few days of a weaker U.S. currency (on Mon, Wed, and Thu) did attempt to provide support.

Cotton Prices (cents/pound)

June 21, 2013

July 12, 2013

Change

Oct Cotton Futures

86.43

85.13

-1.30

Dec Cotton Futures

85.03

85.08

+0.05

South Delta Cotton Quote

83.43

82.13

-1.30

Note: Futures prices are from ICE and cash quote is from USDA, AMS

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