Crop Market Update – Aug 30, 2013


Cereal Grains & Soybeans (by: Brian Williams)

Corn harvest is underway in Mississippi with 14% of the crop in as of Sunday and significant progress expected throughout this week. Crop conditions in Mississippi look good this week with 71% of the corn crop rated good or excellent and 73% of the soybean rated good or excellent. As a whole, the U.S. corn crop continues to develop more slowly than normal with 23% of the crop dented compared to a 5-yr average of 45%. Continue reading “Crop Market Update – Aug 30, 2013”

Livestock Price and Production Tables: Week Ending Aug 30, 2013


Mississippi Auction Markets
Weight Steers Heifers Slaughter Cows, Bulls, and Replacements
300-350 $200 $220 $170 $185 Boning (80-85% lean) $75 $80
350-400 $185 $200 $164 $170 Boning (high-yielding) $80 $89
400-450 $175 $200 $150 $165 Lean $67 $75
450-500 $165 $175 $145 $150 Bulls, YG 1-2, <1,500 lbs $85 $95
500-550 $148 $165 $134 $148 Bulls, YG 1-2, >1,500 lbs $94 $105
550-600 $148 $165 $134 $148
600-650 $138 $150 $125 $137 Sm/Mdm Cow-Calf Pairs $1,000 $1,500
650-700 $138 $150 $125 $137 Mdm/Lg Cow-Calf Pairs $950 $1,300
700-750 $120 $139 $120 $133 Sm/Mdm Replacements $900 $1,400
750-800 $120 $139 $105 $137 Mdm/Lg Replacements $750 $1,250
Volume1 (head): vs Last Week vs Last Year
under 600 lbs 9.3% 69.4%
over 600 lbs 21.4% 72.0%
Slaughter Cows 2.6% 37.9%
Rep. Females 4.9% 83.7%
Note: Steer and heifer prices are for medium and large frame, numbers 1-2.
1- Four Week Rolling Average
Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service

Continue reading “Livestock Price and Production Tables: Week Ending Aug 30, 2013”

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending Aug 23, 2013


Cash Cattle:

Cash market trades were about $1 lower this week in Nebraska at $197, but other cash markets were not called. The five-area cash steer price ended the week lower at $123.44 on a live basis, down $0.44 from last week, while dressed sales averaged $197.65, up $0.79.

In Oklahoma City, feeder steers were $1-$3 higher and feeder heifers were steady to $1 higher. In Mississippi auction markets feeder steers were steady, steer calves were $2 lower to $2 higher, feeder heifers were $3-$5 higher, and heifer calves were $1-$7 higher. Slaughter cows and bulls sold steady.

Futures:

Most live and feeder cattle futures contracts started the week fairly steady before turning lower on Thursday and Friday. Lower cash market transactions added pressure on both days and weakness from outside markets on Wednesday and Friday did not help matters. After markets closed on Friday USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service released their monthly Cattle on Feed report. The report revealed fewer cattle placed into feedlots (much less than anticipated) and more cattle marketed during July. As a result feedlot inventories on August 1 were at 10.026 million head, 5.9% fewer than this time last year and almost 2% lower than expected (a detailed recap of the report can be found here).

Corn futures perked up this week, mostly following on the coat tails of soybean futures. Crop assessments for soybeans show signs of smaller than expected yields. Up to this point, the corn crop is shaping up to be the largest on record. Mississippi is just now harvesting at full steam, behind schedule like the remainder of the U.S., keeping a small cloud over the lofty expectations.

Beef:

Wholesale boxed beef prices continued to move higher in advance of the Labor Day weekend. Choice carcasses finished the week $3.53 higher at $195.66. Select’s finished mostly steady at $184.96, up $0.37.

Note: Unless noted otherwise, all prices quoted are dollars per hundredweight for cattle and beef and dollars per bushel for corn.

August Cattle on Feed Report Recap


USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released their monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday (Aug 23). The report showed that 10.026 million head of cattle were in feedlots with 1,000 head or larger capacity on August 1, 2013. This was 5.9% fewer cattle than August 1, 2012 and 1% less than the five-year average from 2008 to 2012. Market analyst were expecting a drop of 4.2% and the smallest guess pegged the on feed number at 5.6% lower than August 2012. So, the reported number was less than the lowest expectation, which will be viewed as rather bullish.

The smaller on feed number largely stemmed from a smaller number of cattle being placed. Placements during the month of July totaled 1.722 million head, 10.4% below last year and 7.8% smaller than the five-year average. Placements were well below expectations of a 2.5% decline with the smallest placement expectation coming in at minus 7.1%. The trend of placing heavy cattle continued this in July, however all weight groups registered a decline. The number of cattle placed at 700 pounds and over were down 3.7% from last year and those place under 700 pounds were down 19.4%. Similar to previous reports where heavy cattle outnumbered lighter placements, this could put pressure on nearby contracts since those cattle should take less time to finish. However, since this has been the trend for some time now it most likely is already factored into market prices. An interesting item to watch will be if or when the lull in lightweight placements show up in feedlots at a later point in time.

There were more marketings in July than last year and more than the average from 2008 to 2012. Total marketings in July totaled 2.000 million head, 4.5% above one year ago and 3.1% higher than average. The number was right in line with analysts’ expectations of a 4.4% increase.

Report Recap:

Pre-report Estimates:
(1,000 head) vs. 2012 vs. 5-Yr Avg Average Range
Placed in Jul 1,722 -10.4% -7.8% -2.5% -7.1% 11.6%
Marketed in Jul 2,000 4.5% 3.1% 4.4% 2.5% 6.1%
On Feed, Aug 1 10,026 -5.9% -1.0% -4.2% -5.6% -1.8%

Placements by state and weight:

AZ CA CO ID IA KS NE
< 600 lbs. N/A N/A 20.0% N/A N/A -29.4% -35.7%
600-699 lbs. N/A N/A 25.0% N/A N/A -28.6% -21.4%
700-799 lbs. N/A N/A -25.0% N/A N/A -19.4% 0.0%
800+ lbs. N/A N/A -42.9% N/A N/A -5.9% 5.6%
TOTAL 4.5% 9.6% -19.4% 11.4% -7.7% -18.5% -7.3%
OK SD TX WA Other [1] U.S.
< 600 lbs. N/A N/A -26.7% N/A -5.3% -22.0%
600-699 lbs. N/A N/A -11.8% N/A 0.0% -15.4%
700-799 lbs. N/A N/A 30.0% N/A 0.0% -3.2%
800+ lbs. N/A N/A 38.5% N/A -14.1% -4.0%
TOTAL -33.8% -5.0% -3.2% 2.5% -15.1% -10.4%
[1] Individual weight categories include states that are N/A

Livestock Price and Production Tables: Week Ending Aug 23, 2013


 

Mississippi Auction Markets
Weight Steers Heifers Slaughter Cows, Bulls, and Replacements
300-350 $200 $225 $180 $190 Boning (80-85% lean) $75 $80
350-400 $185 $200 $160 $180 Boning (high-yielding) $80 $90
400-450 $170 $190 $145 $165 Lean $65 $77
450-500 $160 $170 $145 $165 Bulls, YG 1-2, <1,500 lbs $85 $95
500-550 $147 $165 $140 $154 Bulls, YG 1-2, >1,500 lbs $94 $110
550-600 $147 $165 $140 $154  
600-650 $132 $150 $130 $144 Sm/Mdm Cow-Calf Pairs $1,400 $1,800
650-700 $132 $150 $124 $130 Mdm/Lg Cow-Calf Pairs $900 $1,400
700-750 $123 $140 $120 $132 Sm/Mdm Replacements $900 $1,400
750-800 $123 $140 $120 $132 Mdm/Lg Replacements $800 $1,100
Volume1 (head): vs Last Week vs Last Year  
under 600 lbs 11.1% 56.6%
over 600 lbs 6.3% 49.5%
Slaughter Cows 9.9% 45.4%
Rep. Females 11.3% 65.3%
Note: Steer and heifer prices are for medium and large frame, numbers 1-2.
1- Four Week Rolling Average
Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service

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Futures Prices
Month Live Cattle Change* Feeder Cattle Change* Corn Change* Soybeans Change*
Aug $123.10 -0.80 $155.00 +0.22        
Sep     $156.65 -1.03 $4.96 +0.22 $13.65 +0.82
Oct $126.70 -1.22 $158.85 -1.03        
Nov     $159.53 -0.78     $13.28 +0.69
Dec $129.23 -0.83     $4.70 +0.07    
Jan     $158.20 -1.23     $13.29 +0.67
Feb $130.73 -1.03            
Mar     $157.53 -1.53 $4.82 +0.06 $13.05 +0.55
Apr $131.73 -0.75 $158.05 -1.15        
May     $158.30 -1.20 $4.90 +0.06 $12.76 +0.42
Jun $126.33 -0.65            
Jul         $4.96 +0.06 $12.75 +0.39
Source: CME Group
Note: Cattle prices in $/cwt; Corn & Soybean prices in $/bu
*Change from last Friday’s close.

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Feeder Calf Markets (price for M&L #1-2 steers)
  750-800 lbs 500-550 lbs
Mississippi $131.50 $156.00
OKC $149.84 $170.08
Kentucky $151.92 $165.16
Joplin, MO $148.14 $172.34
Tulia, TX $135.00 NQ

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Price and Production Summary
  This Week Last Week Last Year
5-Area Fed Steer Price      
   Live $123.44 $123.86 $120.31
   Dressed $197.65 $196.86 $187.45
OKC Feeder Cattle Prices      
   7.5-8 wt M&L #1 steer $155.99 $154.42 $138.48
   5-5.5 wt M&L #1 steer $182.49 $178.75 $157.98
BBCV (weekly avg.)      
   600-900 lb Choice cutout $195.66 $192.13 $193.47
   600-900 lb Select cutout $184.96 $184.59 $184.77
   Choice Rib Value $304.41 $299.34 $290.71
   Choice Chuck Value $166.26 $161.55 $159.07
Other Livestock Prices      
   Barrows and Gilts (base price) $91.22 $97.76 $80.82
   Pork Carcass Cutout $100.79 $103.57 $88.23
   Georgia Dock Broilers $105.85 $105.86 $94.94
   Georgia Dock B/S Breasts $212.50 $214.00 $176.50
   Georgia Dock Leg Quarters $53.50 $53.50 $51.50
Feed Prices ($/ton)      
   Whole Cottonseed1 $300.00 $300.00 $298.00
   Cottonseed Meal1 $332.50 $330.00 $410.00
   Corn Gluten Meal (60%)1 $590.00 $590.00 $720.00
   Soybean Hulls1 $155.00 $155.00 $320.00
   Soybean Meal (48%)1 $480.80 $461.70 $581.60
   Wheat Midds1 $150.00 $170.00 $290.00
   Corn Gluten Feed2 $152.00 $152.00 $285.00
   Corn Gluten Pellets (21%)3 $202.50 $217.50 $297.50
   Soybean Hull Pellets3 $195.00 $207.50 $315.00
   Distillers’ Dried Grains4 $226.50 $233.00 $300.00
   Rice Bran5 $190.00 $190.00 $197.50
Meat Production (million lbs)  
   Beef 504.9 492.9 516.9
   Pork 447.6 441.4 454.3
Slaughter (1,000 head)  
   Cattle 634 620 653
   Hogs 2,207 2,177 2,265
   Broilers/Fryers 157,671 153,627 159,748
Avg. Dressed Weight  
   Cattle 798 797 793
   Hogs 203 203 201
Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service
1-Memphis; 2-St. Louis; 3-Alabama; 4-E. Corn Belt; 5-Arkansas

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Southeastern Wholesale Fertilizer and Farm Diesel Prices
  This Week Last Week Last Year Y-o-Y

% Change

Liquid N (28% spread) $ 459.50 $ 459.50 $ 460.00 -0.1%
Ammonium Nitrate $ 495.00 $ 495.00 $ 539.50 -8.2%
13-13-13 $ 483.00 $ 494.50 $ 512.00 -5.7%
17-17-17 $ 585.00 $ 585.00 $ 596.50 -1.9%
DAP (18%N, 46%P) $ 642.50 $ 642.50 $ 624.00 3.0%
Potash $ 613.00 $ 613.00 $ 647.00 -5.3%
Lime $ 37.50 $ 37.50 $ 37.50 0.0%
Farm Diesel $ 3.47 $ 3.43 $ 3.47 0.0%
Source:  USDA- AL Dept of Ag, Market News, Montgomery, AL
Fertilizer prices are $/ton, Diesel prices are $/gal for <1,000 gallons

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Southeastern Hay Market Report
  This Week Last Week
  Good Premium Good Premium
Bermuda        
4×5 Roll NQ $100.00 NQ $85.06
5×5 or 5×6 Roll NQ 100 NQ $100.00
Bahia        
4×5 Roll NQ 100 NQ 100
5×5 or 5×6 Roll NQ NQ NQ 86.67
Prices are $/ton
Source:  USDA-AL Dept of Ag, Market News, Montgomery, AL

 

Crop Market Update – Aug 23, 2013


Cereal Grains & Soybeans (by: Brian Williams)

Crop scouts have been touring much of the corn belt this week and their findings have been a major driver in crop prices this week. The corn crop looks very good in much of Illinois and Indiana, while Iowa has quite a bit of variability. Despite the variability in Iowa, yields there are expected to be above the trend line. Soybeans are a different story. Scouts have been finding lower pod counts than a year ago in many areas, which is bringing some concern about yields at harvest. At the same time, soybean demand is remaining relatively strong providing a boost to prices over the last week. Despite the bearish information coming in about the corn crop, it appears that the corn market is following soybeans and has had a positive tone this week. Corn harvest is underway in Mississippi, with 6% of the crop harvested as of Sunday evening. This led to Mississippi cash prices moving lower in spite of higher futures prices.

Cotton (by: John Michael Riley)

Cotton prices were dealt blow this week and fell about 10 cents per pound.  The December futures price pushed above 93 cents last Friday, a contract high. On Tuesday, whispers of China releasing some of their massive reserves. Then, weakness in the general economy as well as a stronger U.S. dollar added pressure on Wednesday. Prices stabilized the remainder of the week.

Recap of Futures Markets:

Nearby Futures Contract This Friday Last Friday % Change
Corn $4.95 $4.73 4.65%
Soybeans $13.65 $12.83 6.39%
Cotton 84.08 93.32 -9.90%
Wheat $6.34 $6.31 0.48%
Rice $15.56 $15.19 2.44%
Source: Corn, soybean, wheat, and rice prices are from the CMEGroup; Cotton price is from the Intercontinental Exchange
Prices are $/bu for corn, soybeans and wheat, cents/pound for cotton, and $/cwt for rice

Recap of Mississippi Cash Prices:

Miss. Cash Quote This Friday Last Friday % Change
Corn $4.83 $5.07 -4.73%
Soybeans $13.57 $13.16 3.12%
Cotton 81.49 90.65 -10.10%
Wheat $6.01 $6.08 -1.15%
Note: Corn, soybeans, and wheat are averages from Greenville, Belzoni, Greenwood, and Indianola, MS ($/bu); Cotton is the South Delta base grade quote (cents/lb)
Source: All prices are from USDA, Ag Marketing Service

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending Aug 16, 2013


Cash Cattle:

The five-area cash steer price ended the week higher at $123.86 on a live basis, up $1.49 from last week, and cash dressed sales averaged $196.86, up $3.86. All state/regional markets had not seen enough volume to report prices.

In Oklahoma City, feeder steers and heifers were $3-$5 higher, calves were higher on a light test. In Mississippi auction markets feeder steers were steady to $10 higher, steer calves were steady to $7 higher, feeder heifers were steady to $4 higher, and heifer calves were $3-$4 higher. Slaughter cows in Mississippi sold steady to $4 higher and bulls were $1-$4 higher.

Futures:

Live cattle futures improved again this week. Despite a lack of cash trade volume higher prices are being reported for cattle exiting feedlots. Also, much improved wholesale beef prices (with Choice finishing the week above the $190 mark) helped add support. The Zilmax drama continued this week. First, other packing facilities noted they would continue to purchase cattle that are fed Zilmax. Then, on Friday, Merck announced they were halting sales of the product to conduct some research on the feed additive’s animal health impact. USDA released their monthly supply and demand estimates on Monday. The report revealed an increase of beef production for the second half of 2013, compared to the July estimates. Also, first quarter 2014 production was revised higher, but second quarter projections were lowered (compared to last month’s report).

The supply and demand report was bullish for corn prices as ending stocks were lowered from last month’s estimate, and the reported value was lower than most pre-report estimates. The helped push prices higher but was followed by a correction on Tuesday as markets closed lower. Thursday, USDA’s Farm Service Agency released the acres from producer’s planted, failed and “prevented” crops. This showed corn acres lower than those released in Monday’s reports.

Beef:

Momentum continued for wholesale boxed beef prices. Choice carcasses finished with a weekly average of $192.13, up $4.21, and Select moved $3.16 higher finishing at $184.59.

Note: Unless noted otherwise, all prices quoted are dollars per hundredweight for cattle and beef and dollars per bushel for corn.