Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending Sept 27, 2013


Better late then never! …

Cash Cattle:

Cash fed cattle trade was limited through Friday afternoon (and still no reports in-spite of this coming out Monday morning). A few cattle traded at $126 live and $198-$200 dressed in Nebraska with similar dressed sales in the Western Cornbelt. The five area fed steer price for the week was $124.31 for live sales, up $1.61, and $195.24 dressed.

In Oklahoma City feeder steers and heifers were steady to $2 higher. In Mississippi markets, feeder steers were $3-$5 higher and feeder heifers $2-$5 higher. Cows sold $1-$2 higher and bulls were steady. Continue reading “Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending Sept 27, 2013”

Livestock Price and Production Tables: Week Ending Sept 27, 2013


 

Weight Steers Heifers Slaughter Cows, Bulls, and Replacements
300-350 $180 $195 $155 $170 Boning (80-85% lean) $67 $78
350-400 $170 $180 $155 $170 Boning (high-yielding) $78 $86
400-450 $152 $175 $140 $157 Lean $62 $70
450-500 $152 $175 $140 $157 Bulls, YG 1-2, <1,500 lbs $78 $93
500-550 $140 $160 $130 $145 Bulls, YG 1-2, >1,500 lbs $85 $100
550-600 $140 $160 $130 $145  
600-650 $130 $150 $123 $138 Sm/Mdm Cow-Calf Pairs $1,200 $1,600
650-700 $130 $150 $123 $138 Mdm/Lg Cow-Calf Pairs $1,000 $1,350
700-750 $129 $140 $115 $134 Sm/Mdm Replacements $850 $1,300
750-800 $129 $140 $115 $134 Mdm/Lg Replacements $800 $1,100
Volume1 (head): vs Last Week vs Last Year  
under 600 lbs -2.2% 2.0%
over 600 lbs -17.6% 9.6%
Slaughter Cows 1.6% 10.3%
Rep. Females 8.5% 54.9%
Note: Steer and heifer prices are for medium and large frame, numbers 1-2.
1- Four Week Rolling Average
Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service

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Futures Prices
Month Live Cattle Change* Feeder Cattle Change* Corn Change* Soybeans Change*
Oct $128.25 +2.30 $164.40 +4.18        
Nov     $165.05 +4.30     $13.20 +0.04
Dec $132.15 +2.40     $4.54 +0.03    
Jan     $164.00 +3.60     $13.22 +0.04
Feb $133.93 +2.40            
Mar     $162.73 +2.47 $4.67 +0.03 $12.99 -0.02
Apr $134.75 +2.00 $162.80 +2.43        
May     $163.00 +2.68 $4.75 +0.03 $12.73 -0.04
Jun $128.80 +1.78            
Jul         $4.81 +0.02 $12.65 -0.06
Aug $127.30 +1.15 $164.15 +2.25     $12.51 -0.04
Sep     $165.78   $4.85 +0.01 $12.09 +0.00
Source: CME Group
Note: Cattle prices in $/cwt; Corn & Soybean prices in $/bu
*Change from last Friday’s close.

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Feeder Calf Markets (price for M&L #1-2 steers)
  750-800 lbs 500-550 lbs
Mississippi $134.50 $150.00
OKC $152.89 $165.93
Kentucky $152.39 $157.06
Joplin, MO $151.42 $160.85
Tulia, TX $145.00 NQ

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Price and Production Summary
  This Week Last Week Last Year
5-Area Fed Steer Price      
   Live $124.31 $122.70 $122.46
   Dressed $195.24 NQ $190.99
OKC Feeder Cattle Prices      
   7.5-8 wt M&L #1 steer $159.81 $156.38 $145.16
   5-5.5 wt M&L #1 steer $173.74 $173.11 $154.84
BBCV (weekly avg.)      
   600-900 lb Choice cutout $193.43 $192.94 $191.77
   600-900 lb Select cutout $176.90 $176.31 $180.77
   Choice Rib Value $305.68 $303.46 $286.87
   Choice Chuck Value $162.25 $162.07 $166.87
Other Livestock Prices      
   Barrows and Gilts (base price) $91.61 $94.95 $73.91
   Pork Carcass Cutout $101.19 $98.88 $79.41
   Georgia Dock Broilers $105.58 $105.68 $95.50
   Georgia Dock B/S Breasts $202.50 $203.00 $162.00
   Georgia Dock Leg Quarters $53.50 $53.50 $52.50
Feed Prices ($/ton)      
   Whole Cottonseed1 $320.00 $305.00 $290.00
   Cottonseed Meal1 $370.00 $382.50 $355.00
   Corn Gluten Meal (60%)1 $590.00 $590.00 $740.00
   Soybean Hulls1 $160.00 $180.00 $197.00
   Soybean Meal (48%)1 $471.10 $531.20 $516.60
   Wheat Midds1 $210.00 $200.00 $260.00
   Corn Gluten Feed2 $165.00 $195.00 $242.50
   Corn Gluten Pellets (21%)3 $212.50 $212.50 $272.50
   Soybean Hull Pellets3 $192.50 $192.50 $242.00
   Distillers’ Dried Grains4 $227.50 $229.00 $281.00
   Rice Bran5 $190.00 $187.50 $207.50
Meat Production (million lbs)  
   Beef 503.9 505.5 516.3
   Pork 446.0 443.3 474.0
Slaughter (1,000 head)  
   Cattle 632 633 651
   Hogs 2,190 2,180 2,345
   Broilers/Fryers 156,349 158,190 157,410
Avg. Dressed Weight  
   Cattle 799 800 794
   Hogs 204 203 202
Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service
1-Memphis; 2-St. Louis; 3-Alabama; 4-E. Corn Belt; 5-Arkansas

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Southeastern Fertilizer and Farm Diesel Prices
  This Week Last Week Last Year Y-o-Y

% Change

Liquid N (28% spread) $ 459.50 $ 459.50 $ 460.00 -0.1%
Ammonium Nitrate $ 487.00 $ 487.00 $ 539.50 -9.7%
13-13-13 $ 465.00 $ 465.00 $ 512.00 -9.2%
17-17-17 $ 577.50 $ 577.50 $ 596.50 -3.2%
DAP (18%N, 46%P) $ 642.50 $ 642.50 $ 624.00 3.0%
Potash $ 600.00 $ 600.00 $ 647.00 -7.3%
Lime $ 37.50 $ 37.50 $ 37.50 0.0%
Farm Diesel $ 3.45 $ 3.50 $ 3.59 -3.8%
Source:  USDA- AL Dept of Ag, Market News, Montgomery, AL
Fertilizer prices are $/ton, Diesel prices are $/gal for <1,000 gallons

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Southeastern Hay Market Report
  This Week Last Week
  Good Premium Good Premium
Bermuda        
4×5 Roll NQ $95.00 NQ $79.60
5×5 or 5×6 Roll NQ $100 NQ $89.19
Bahia        
4×5 Roll NQ NQ NQ $90.00
5×5 or 5×6 Roll NQ NQ NQ $73.39
Prices are $/ton
Source:  USDA-AL Dept of Ag, Market News, Montgomery, AL

 

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending Sept 20, 2013


Cattle:

Cash fed cattle were mostly steady this week. Live cattle were reported up $1 at $124 in the Southern Plains. Not enough trade has been reported to call a trend in Nebraska or Iowa. The five area live steer price was $122.70, down $0.30.

In Oklahoma City on Monday, feeder steers sold $3-5 higher; feeder heifers were steady to $1 higher; and calves were mostly steady. Mississippi feeder steers were called $3-$10 lower for the week and feeder heifers were $2-$5 lower. Cows were $1-$5 lower and bulls were $1-$3 lower. Continue reading “Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending Sept 20, 2013”

September Cattle on Feed Report Recap


USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released their monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon (Sep 20). The report revealed that 1.788 million head of cattle were placed into feedlots with 1,000 head or larger capacity during August 2013 and 1.883 million head were sold over the same time frame. This left 9.876 million head in feedlots on September 1, 2013, the lowest since 2003 and the sixth smallest since 1996 when the data series began. The on feed number was 7.2% lower than 2012 and 3.9% lower than the average from 2008-2012. Cattle market analysts were expecting the total number of cattle on feed to decline 6.5% on average with the lowest guess looking for a drop of 7.3%, therefore the reported number was lower than the smallest expectation (by 0.1 percentage points). The lower than expected on feed number was the culmination of fewer head placed and more head marketed than analysts were projecting.

Placements during August were 10.9% lower than August 2012, 16.4% lower than the previous five-year average, and 2.5 percentage points below the average of the pre-report expectations (but still within the range of expectations). This marks the smallest placement number for the month of August since the Cattle on Feed report started in 1996 (the previous low was 1.993 million head in August 2005, which puts 2013’s number at 205,000 head lighter).  Placements across all weight groups were lower during August (in fact, 800+ pound placements in Nebraska were the only group to register a positive year-over-year change for those locations where weights are broken out). Arizona is the only state to show an increase in total placements compared to last year but keep in mind the southwestern region of the U.S. was still under heavy drought conditions. This marks the first month since February that placements above 700 pounds were lower than previous year placements, a telling sign that cattle are simply not out there.

Marketings during August were higher than expected by pre-report analysts, up 0.8 percentage points, but 3.7% lower than August 2012 and 2.1% below the average from 2008-2012.

Overall the report appears to be on the bullish side (I would argue very bullish, but I’ll leave that up to the market to decide on Monday). The final on feed number was not only lower than the average expectation but lower than the smallest projection. Placements registered their lowest since the data series began. Marketings, while below year-ago levels,came in better than expected (keep in mind selling cattle that do not exist is not possible; i.e., marketings SHOULD be lower since fewer cattle are around today). All-in-all, the market will likely respond positively on Monday, barring any other offsetting news coming out.

Report Overview:

        Pre-report Estimates:
  (1,000 head) vs. 2012 vs. 5-Yr Avg Average Range
Placed in Aug 1,788 -10.9% -16.4% -8.4% -13.5% +1.9%
Marketed in Aug 1,883 -3.7% -2.1% -4.5% -6.5%  0.0%
On Feed, Sep 1 9,876 -7.2% -3.9% -6.5% -7.3% -4.0%

Placements by weight and state:

  AZ CA CO ID IA KS NE
< 600 lbs. N/A N/A -16.7% N/A N/A -18.8% -21.4%
600-699 lbs. N/A N/A -20.0% N/A N/A -19.0% -13.3%
700-799 lbs. N/A N/A -10.0% N/A N/A -4.2% -16.7%
800+ lbs. N/A N/A -35.3% N/A N/A -7.7% 7.3%
TOTAL 27.8% -12.7% -23.7% -1.9% -13.2% -11.5% -6.4%
               
  OK SD TX WA Other [1] U.S.  
< 600 lbs. N/A N/A -12.5% N/A -16.7% -16.0%  
600-699 lbs. N/A N/A 0.0% N/A -20.0% -12.2%  
700-799 lbs. N/A N/A -9.1% N/A -6.7% -9.5%  
800+ lbs. N/A N/A -15.4% N/A -8.3% -7.5%  
TOTAL -29.9% -14.7% -9.1% -8.5% -10.2% -10.9%  
[1] Individual weight categories include states that are N/A

 

Livestock Price and Production Tables: Week Ending Sept 20, 2013


 

Mississippi Auction Markets
Weight Steers Heifers Slaughter Cows, Bulls, and Replacements
300-350 $185 $205 $165 $175 Boning (80-85% lean) $75 $78
350-400 $177 $185 $155 $165 Boning (high-yielding) $78 $85
400-450 $158 $177 $137 $157 Lean $62 $75
450-500 $158 $177 $137 $157 Bulls, YG 1-2, <1,500 lbs $80 $92
500-550 $140 $158 $130 $140 Bulls, YG 1-2, >1,500 lbs $88 $102
550-600 $140 $158 $130 $140  
600-650 $130 $145 $121 $135 Sm/Mdm Cow-Calf Pairs $1,200 $1,600
650-700 $130 $145 $121 $135 Mdm/Lg Cow-Calf Pairs $900 $1,300
700-750 $120 $135 $115 $129 Sm/Mdm Replacements $1,000 $1,300
750-800 $120 $135 $115 $129 Mdm/Lg Replacements $800 $1,100
Volume1 (head): vs Last Week vs Last Year  
under 600 lbs -2.5% 23.9%
over 600 lbs 0.8% 43.0%
Slaughter Cows 2.0% 8.3%
Rep. Females 6.3% 45.6%
Note: Steer and heifer prices are for medium and large frame, numbers 1-2.
1- Four Week Rolling Average
Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service

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Futures Prices
Month Live Cattle Change* Feeder Cattle Change* Corn Change* Soybeans Change*
Sep     $157.10 -0.20        
Oct $125.95 +0.70 $160.23 +0.95        
Nov     $160.75 +0.53     $13.15 -0.66
Dec $129.75 +0.60     $4.51 -0.08    
Jan     $160.40 +0.97     $13.18 -0.62
Feb $131.53 +0.35            
Mar     $160.25 +0.10 $4.64 -0.08 $13.00 -0.47
Apr $132.75 +0.28 $160.38 +0.18        
May     $160.33 +0.32 $4.72 -0.08 $12.77 -0.38
Jun $127.03 -0.17            
Jul         $4.79 -0.08 $12.71 -0.37
Aug $126.15 -0.05 $161.90 +0.55     $12.55 -0.24
Source: CME Group
Note: Cattle prices in $/cwt; Corn & Soybean prices in $/bu
*Change from last Friday’s close.

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Feeder Calf Markets (price for M&L #1-2 steers)
  750-800 lbs 500-550 lbs
Mississippi $127.50 $149.00
OKC $151.32 $166.06
Kentucky $146.10 $157.39
Joplin, MO $143.66 $166.80
Tulia, TX $154.00 $165.00

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Price and Production Summary
  This Week Last Week Last Year
5-Area Fed Steer Price      
   Live $122.70 $123.01 $125.29
   Dressed NQ $194.28 $195.02
OKC Feeder Cattle Prices      
   7.5-8 wt M&L #1 steer $156.38 $153.71 $141.50
   5-5.5 wt M&L #1 steer $173.11 $180.90 $159.45
BBCV (weekly avg.)      
   600-900 lb Choice cutout $192.94 $193.71 $194.11
   600-900 lb Select cutout $176.31 $178.20 $183.71
   Choice Rib Value $303.46 $302.87 $293.15
   Choice Chuck Value $162.07 $163.24 $165.56
Other Livestock Prices      
   Barrows and Gilts (base price) $94.95 $93.24 $68.79
   Pork Carcass Cutout $98.88 $97.10 $77.00
   Georgia Dock Broilers $105.68 $105.67 $95.44
   Georgia Dock B/S Breasts $203.00 $205.50 $168.00
   Georgia Dock Leg Quarters $53.50 $53.50 $52.50
Feed Prices ($/ton)      
   Whole Cottonseed1 $305.00 $305.00 $295.00
   Cottonseed Meal1 $382.50 $380.00 $385.00
   Corn Gluten Meal (60%)1 $590.00 $580.00 $740.00
   Soybean Hulls1 $180.00 $170.00 $200.00
   Soybean Meal (48%)1 $531.20 $540.60 $528.50
   Wheat Midds1 $200.00 $185.00 $265.00
   Corn Gluten Feed2 $195.00 $157.50 $255.00
   Corn Gluten Pellets (21%)3 $212.50 $217.50 $282.50
   Soybean Hull Pellets3 $192.50 $192.50 $254.50
   Distillers’ Dried Grains4 $229.00 $231.50 $287.50
   Rice Bran5 $187.50 $185.00 $212.50
Meat Production (million lbs)  
   Beef 505.5 486.9 493.5
   Pork 443.3 441.2 485.6
Slaughter (1,000 head)  
   Cattle 633 611 623
   Hogs 2,180 2,172 2,406
   Broilers/Fryers 158,190 157,676 156,904
Avg. Dressed Weight  
   Cattle 800 799 793
   Hogs 203 203 202
Source: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service
1-Memphis; 2-St. Louis; 3-Alabama; 4-E. Corn Belt; 5-Arkansas

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Southeastern Fertilizer and Farm Diesel Prices
  This Week Last Week Last Year Y-o-Y

% Change

Liquid N (28% spread) $ 459.50 $ 459.50 $ 460.00 -0.1%
Ammonium Nitrate $ 487.00 $ 495.00 $ 539.50 -9.7%
13-13-13 $ 465.00 $ 477.00 $ 512.00 -9.2%
17-17-17 $ 577.50 $ 583.50 $ 596.50 -3.2%
DAP (18%N, 46%P) $ 642.50 $ 642.50 $ 624.00 3.0%
Potash $ 600.00 $ 608.00 $ 647.00 -7.3%
Lime $ 37.50 $ 37.50 $ 37.50 0.0%
Farm Diesel $ 3.50 $ 3.52 $ 3.62 -3.2%
Source:  USDA- AL Dept of Ag, Market News, Montgomery, AL
Fertilizer prices are $/ton, Diesel prices are $/gal for <1,000 gallons

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Southeastern Hay Market Report
  This Week Last Week
  Good Premium Good Premium
Bermuda        
4×5 Roll NQ $79.60 NQ $109.96
5×5 or 5×6 Roll NQ 89.19 NQ $100.00
Bahia        
4×5 Roll NQ 90 NQ 90
5×5 or 5×6 Roll NQ $73.39 NQ NQ
Prices are $/ton
Source:  USDA-AL Dept of Ag, Market News, Montgomery, AL

 

Crop Market Update – Sept 20, 2013


Cereal Grains & Soybeans (by: Brian Williams)

The September prevented planting acreage report was released by the FSA earlier this week. While the report did not contain many surprises with only minor changes from last month’s report, it does indicate that next month we may see some changes in the WASDE report. The FSA currently estimates that there were 3.57 million prevented corn acres and a total of 91.4 million planted acres. This is much less than the WASDE’s estimate of 97.4 million planted acres. Corn harvest is underway in several areas of the country with about 4% of the U.S. crop now out of the field. Continue reading “Crop Market Update – Sept 20, 2013”

Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending Sep 06, 2013


Cattle:

Cash fed cattle were mostly steady this week. Live cattle were reported at $123 in the Southern Plains. In Nebraska, dressed sales were at $194-$195. Live and dressed sales were $122-$122.50 and $193-$195, respectively, in the Western Cornbelt. The five area live and dressed steer prices were, respectively, $123.01 and $194.28, up $0.59 and $0.06.

In Oklahoma City on Monday, feeders sold steady to $1 higher and calves were mostly steady. Mississippi feeder steers were called $5-$10 lower for the week and feeder heifers were $5 lower. Cows and bulls were $1-$2 lower. Continue reading “Cattle Market Notes: Week Ending Sep 06, 2013”