November Crop Supply and Demand Estimates

The reports we have been waiting for over a month (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report and Crop Production) were finally released mid-day Friday and brought about a few surprises. Projected 2013 soybean production in the U.S. was revised higher from September’s 3.03 billion bushels to 3.26 billion bushels, slightly higher than pre-report estimates of 3.22 billion bushels. The U.S. corn production estimate was revised up to 13.99 billion bushels this month compared to 13.84 in September, but lower than pre-report expectations of 14.03. Corn yield was estimated to be 160.4 bu/acre versus 155.3 reported in September and 159.2 expected.

The big surprise in the WASDE report for corn and soybeans was not production, but rather demand for both crops projected much stronger than expected. Corn use for feed was revised up by 100 million bushels and corn exports came in very strong with a 175 million bushel increase compared to September. Soybean demand was also strong with soybean crush up 30 million bushels and soybean exports increased by 80 million bushels.

With respect to cotton, estimated U.S. production was raised to 13.11 million bales, up from September’s 12.90 as a result of higher projected yields. The national yield is currently pegged at 808 pounds per acre, up 12 pounds from September. Use was mostly unchanged at 14.00 million total bales, up 100,000. Some slight revisions in last year’s carryover left the projected carryover for 2013/2014’s marketing year up 100,000 bales to 3.0 million. Global carry-over was raised to 95.71 million bales compared to 94.73 two months ago. Domestic stocks-to-use is currently at a manageable 21%, while global stocks-to-use is at a dismal 87%.

Mississippi soybeans yield is currently pegged at 43 bushels per acre, two bushels per acre behind last year’s record of 45. The state’s corn yield is expected to surpass last year’s record with the current estimate at 180 bushel per acre for the statewide average yield. Cotton yield in Mississippi is projected at 1,090 pounds per acre which would break the previous record 1,024.


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