Crop Market Update (with Acreage and Stocks report) – Week Ending June 28


Friday’s acreage report came as a big surprise to many. Most analysts were expecting corn acreage to be revised down about 2 million acres to 95.34 million; however the USDA’s acreage report estimated corn acres at 97.38 million. This was a slight increase over the March Prospective Plantings report of 97.28, which has been the baseline since that time. National corn stocks were reported at 2.76 billion bushels, slightly below the expected 2.85 billion bushels. Nearby July corn futures were impacted by the grain stocks report, closing up 12 cents on the day but new crop futures took a hit in response to the acreage report with September 2013 corn futures closing down 25 cents and December corn closing down 27 cents. With an acreage report estimate of 77.73 million acres, soybeans came in slightly below the expected 78.02 million acres predicted by many analysts but above the 77.13 million acres reported in the June WASDE report (which had been unchanged from March’s report). Soybean stocks came in slightly lower than expected at 435 million bushels compared to the pre-report guess of 441 million bushels. July soybean futures responded positively the reports, closing up 16 cents on the day to finish off a strong week that saw an increase of 71 cents. September new crop soybeans closed down 14 cents on the day. The wheat acreage estimate was surprisingly higher than expected as well. USDA reported all wheat acres at 56.53 million acres compared to an expectation of 55.75 million acres. Winter wheat acreage is reported as 2% higher than the previous estimate as well. Wheat in storage was 32 million bushels lower than analysts expected at 718 million bushels. The reports negatively impacted wheat markets with nearby July wheat finishing down 15 cents on the day and 50 cents on the week.

Small Grains Prices

June 21, 2013

June 28, 2013

Change

Nearby Corn Futures

$6.61

$6.79

$0.18

Mississippi Corn*

$6.97

$7.02

$0.05

Nearby Soybeans Futures

$14.93

$15.64

$0.71

Mississippi Soybeans*

$15.01

$15.67

$0.66

Nearby Chicago Wheat Futures

$6.98

$6.48

-$0.50

Mississippi Wheat*

$6.69

$6.35

-$0.34

*Mississippi prices are average June 27, 2013 prices from Greeneville, Belzoni, Greenwood, and Indianola.

Cotton acres were reported at 10.251 million (10.025 for Upland and 0.226 for Pima). This compares to March’s Prospective Plantings acreage number of 10.026 million (9.820 for Upland and 0.206 for Pima). Still, nearby cotton continued to slide. The harvest time December contract moved mostly sideways during the week.

Cotton Prices (cents/pound)

June 21, 2013

June 28, 2013

Change

July Cotton Futures

85.15

82.71

-2.44

December Cotton Futures

84.64

83.80

-0.84

South Delta Cotton Quote*

82.68

82.61

-0.07

Note: Futures prices are from ICE and cash quote is from USDA, AMS

Advertisements

Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Report: Quick Summary


USDA released their annual Prospective Plantings report and quarterly Grain Stocks reports today (Mar 28). The acreage report was largely in-line with pre-report expectations, but the stocks report had quite a shock for corn supplies and a slight surprise for soybeans and wheat. As a result of the unexpected higher supplies from the stocks report markets were down rather hard. Continue reading “Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Report: Quick Summary”

2012 USDA Acreage Report


(Correction to Mississippi cotton acreage change from March has been made)

The much anticipated, and likely to be much debated, 2012 Acreage report from USDA  was released this morning (June 29). Nationally, the report bumped up the number of acres for corn and soybeans from it’s earlier Prospective Plantings report. Cotton acres were reported lower than in March. Mississippi corn and cotton acres were lowered from the March estimates but soybean acres were raised. Debate will certainly follow in the coming days/weeks before attention is moved squarely to yields. Continue reading “2012 USDA Acreage Report”

2012 Prospective Plantings Report Recap


USDA released their annual Prospective Plantings report Friday morning (Mar 30). The report reveled that corn is the big gainer in terms of acres planted this year versus last year. Corn acres across the U.S. are expected to jump by almost four million to 95.864. Although not the largest gainer in terms of total acres, peanuts are projected to increase by 24.7%. This accounts for an increase to 1.422 million acres from 1.141 in 2011, or up 281,000. Cotton and soybeans are expected to see the largest declines in acreage across the U.S. Cotton acres are projected to be down 1.577 million acres versus last year at 13.155 million (total cotton acres, Upland acres are projected at 12.885 million). Soybean acres are expected to drop by 1.074 million to 73.902. Two other crops that will see an increase in total acres are hay and wheat, forecasted at 57.348 and 55.908 million, respectively and up 3.1% and 2.8% from 2011. Grain Sorghum is also forecasted higher at 5.95 million acres, up 469,000 from last year. Rice and Sweet Potato acres are expected to fall compared to 2011 by 128,000 and 800, respectively, which would put 2012 plantings for these two crops at 2.561 million for rice and 133,400 for sweet potatoes.
Continue reading “2012 Prospective Plantings Report Recap”