November Crop Supply and Demand Estimates


The reports we have been waiting for over a month (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report and Crop Production) were finally released mid-day Friday and brought about a few surprises. Projected 2013 soybean production in the U.S. was revised higher from September’s 3.03 billion bushels to 3.26 billion bushels, slightly higher than pre-report estimates of 3.22 billion bushels. The U.S. corn production estimate was revised up to 13.99 billion bushels this month compared to 13.84 in September, but lower than pre-report expectations of 14.03. Corn yield was estimated to be 160.4 bu/acre versus 155.3 reported in September and 159.2 expected. Continue reading “November Crop Supply and Demand Estimates”

Crop Market Update – Sept 20, 2013


Cereal Grains & Soybeans (by: Brian Williams)

The September prevented planting acreage report was released by the FSA earlier this week. While the report did not contain many surprises with only minor changes from last month’s report, it does indicate that next month we may see some changes in the WASDE report. The FSA currently estimates that there were 3.57 million prevented corn acres and a total of 91.4 million planted acres. This is much less than the WASDE’s estimate of 97.4 million planted acres. Corn harvest is underway in several areas of the country with about 4% of the U.S. crop now out of the field. Continue reading “Crop Market Update – Sept 20, 2013”

Crop Market Update – Sep 13, 2013


Cereal Grains & Soybeans (by: Brian Williams)

The big news this week is yesterday’s WASDE report release (recap here). While many were expecting corn yields to be revised lower this month, yields were actually revised higher to 155.3 bu/acre. This was bearish news for the corn market as December corn closed down six cents Thursday and down seven cents again on Friday. Harvest is progressing well in Mississippi with 60 percent of the crop now harvested and 79 percent of the Mississippi corn crop is rated good or excellent. The crop condition in Mississippi was reflected in the USDA Crop Production report with a new record yield of 170 bu/acre expected this year. The WASDE was slightly bullish for soybeans. Expected yields were revised downward to 41.2 bu/acre, although that did line up with pre-report expectations. The soybean ending stocks were revised down to 150 million bushels, a number that is only slightly higher than last year. This caused upward pressure on the markets yesterday with nearby soybean futures finishing up 38 cents on the day. Some of Thursday’s gain was lost on Friday however, as soybeans closed down 14 cents on the day. Mississippi soybean conditions are looking very good with 74 percent of the crop rated good or excellent. The Crop Production report has Mississippi soybean yields unchanged from last month at 42 bu/acre. This is 3 bu/acre lower than last year’s record yield of 45 bu/acre. Currently, 19 percent of the Mississippi soybean crop has dropped its leaves and 40 percent have turned color. Both of these numbers are significantly behind the 5-year average.


Cotton
(by: John Michael Riley)

Cotton prices finished the week slightly higher compared to last Friday’s close. A weaker U.S. dollar and steady stock market (some might call it higher) helped add support. USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board released their monthly supply and demand estimates report mid-day Thursday. The report is summarized here and in spite of it showing more cotton in stocks both in the U.S. across the globe, markets were higher on the day. The U.S. crop continues decline. The national yield estimate was lowered 17 pounds to 796 (with Mississippi’s yield getting bumped to 1,009).

Futures Market Recap:

Futures Quotes (Contract) This Friday Last Friday % Change
Corn (Dec 2013) $4.59 $4.68 -1.92%
Soybeans (Nov 2013) $13.82 $13.67 1.06%
Cotton (Dec 2013) 84.46 83.49 1.16%
Wheat (Dec 2013) $6.41 $6.47 -0.93%
Rice (Nov 2013) $15.42 $15.41 0.06%
Source: Corn, soybean, wheat, and rice prices are from the CMEGroup; Cotton price is from the Intercontinental Exchange
Prices are $/bu for corn, soybeans and wheat, cents/pound for cotton, and $/cwt for rice

Mississippi Cash Quotes:

Miss. Cash Quote This Friday Last Friday % Change
Corn $4.33 $4.35 -0.46%
Soybeans $14.19 $14.01 1.28%
Cotton 82.96 80.99 2.43%
Wheat $5.99 $5.94 0.84%
Note: Corn, soybeans, and wheat are averages from Greenville, Belzoni, Greenwood, and Indianola, MS ($/bu); Cotton is the South Delta base grade quote (cents/lb)
Source: All prices are from USDA, Ag Marketing Service

September Supply and Demand Report Recap


CORN

After all of the news from crop scouts in the corn belt a few weeks ago, the much anticipated September WASDE report has been released. One of the bigger surprises came with the estimated corn yield. Pre-report estimates were expecting a reduction in corn yields from last month on news that the Iowa corn crop was not as good as previously thought. But, the USDA actually revised yields 0.9 bu/acre higher with a great crop in the South and the Eastern Corn Belt more than offsetting lower yields further West. The increase in yields will result in a record 13.843 billion bushels in corn being harvested this fall. Even with an increase of 55 million bushel in demand, ending stocks were revised up 15 million bushels from last month. Mississippi is expected to top last year’s record corn yields with a 170 bu/acre yield.

SOYBEANS

With reports coming out a few weeks ago of poor pod counts, it is unsurprising that the USDA revised soybean yields down by 1.4 bu/acre to 41.2 bu/acre. This figure is in line with most pre-report estimates. The lower production is partially offset by decreased crush and exports, however ending stocks were still revised down by 70 million bushels from last month to 150 million bushels. This is only 25 million bushels more than last year’s ending stocks.

COTTON

Stocks of old crop (2012) cotton increased 100,000 bales based on end of marketing year data (the marketing year closed July 31, but balance sheets are still being updated). This pretty much flowed through into the new crop (2013) revised stocks number, which also increased 100,000 bales to 2.9 million total. This is not to say that no changes were made to the 2013 supply and demand projections. The U.S.’s 2013 yield was lowered 17 pounds per acre to 796 (Mississippi’s yield forecast was increased 19 pounds per acre to 1,009) due to lingering drought in West Texas which has kept a lid on crop condition ratings the past number of weeks. This pulled total 2013 production estimates down to 12.9 million bales from 13.05 projected last month (harvested acres were increased by 80,000 to 7.78 million as more information comes in from sources such as Farm Service Agency). Exports were lowered by 200,000 bales to 10.4 million due to the slow pace of sales thus far in the current marketing year.

Globally, projected ending stocks were raised by 960,000 bales largely due to increases from Brazil and India, and are currently projected at 94.73 million. Brazilian ending stocks rose 190,000 bales from last month’s estimate (currently pegged at 6.23 million bales) and India’s projected ending stocks increased 600,000 bales (to 9.39 million from last month). Despite China not seeing many revisions with their crop or ending stocks, they continue to hold the lion’s share of the stocks (62% of total world stocks).

Crop Market Update – Sept 6, 2013


Cereal Grains & Soybeans (by: Brian Williams)

It has been a tough week for corn markets again this week. Much of the downward pressure in the corn markets is because we are expecting a record corn crop this fall. Harvest is also in full gear in much of the South, with 34% of Mississippi’s corn harvest already complete. This is behind the average pace of 64%, but with the warm, relatively dry week throughout much of the state we should see significant progress reported next week. Soybean prices have held steady much of the week, closing ten cents higher than a week ago. While there is still much uncertainty Continue reading “Crop Market Update – Sept 6, 2013”

Crop Market Update – Aug 30, 2013


Cereal Grains & Soybeans (by: Brian Williams)

Corn harvest is underway in Mississippi with 14% of the crop in as of Sunday and significant progress expected throughout this week. Crop conditions in Mississippi look good this week with 71% of the corn crop rated good or excellent and 73% of the soybean rated good or excellent. As a whole, the U.S. corn crop continues to develop more slowly than normal with 23% of the crop dented compared to a 5-yr average of 45%. Continue reading “Crop Market Update – Aug 30, 2013”

Crop Market Update – Aug 23, 2013


Cereal Grains & Soybeans (by: Brian Williams)

Crop scouts have been touring much of the corn belt this week and their findings have been a major driver in crop prices this week. The corn crop looks very good in much of Illinois and Indiana, while Iowa has quite a bit of variability. Despite the variability in Iowa, yields there are expected to be above the trend line. Soybeans are a different story. Scouts have been finding lower pod counts than a year ago in many areas, which is bringing some concern about yields at harvest. At the same time, soybean demand is remaining relatively strong providing a boost to prices over the last week. Despite the bearish information coming in about the corn crop, it appears that the corn market is following soybeans and has had a positive tone this week. Corn harvest is underway in Mississippi, with 6% of the crop harvested as of Sunday evening. This led to Mississippi cash prices moving lower in spite of higher futures prices.

Cotton (by: John Michael Riley)

Cotton prices were dealt blow this week and fell about 10 cents per pound.  The December futures price pushed above 93 cents last Friday, a contract high. On Tuesday, whispers of China releasing some of their massive reserves. Then, weakness in the general economy as well as a stronger U.S. dollar added pressure on Wednesday. Prices stabilized the remainder of the week.

Recap of Futures Markets:

Nearby Futures Contract This Friday Last Friday % Change
Corn $4.95 $4.73 4.65%
Soybeans $13.65 $12.83 6.39%
Cotton 84.08 93.32 -9.90%
Wheat $6.34 $6.31 0.48%
Rice $15.56 $15.19 2.44%
Source: Corn, soybean, wheat, and rice prices are from the CMEGroup; Cotton price is from the Intercontinental Exchange
Prices are $/bu for corn, soybeans and wheat, cents/pound for cotton, and $/cwt for rice

Recap of Mississippi Cash Prices:

Miss. Cash Quote This Friday Last Friday % Change
Corn $4.83 $5.07 -4.73%
Soybeans $13.57 $13.16 3.12%
Cotton 81.49 90.65 -10.10%
Wheat $6.01 $6.08 -1.15%
Note: Corn, soybeans, and wheat are averages from Greenville, Belzoni, Greenwood, and Indianola, MS ($/bu); Cotton is the South Delta base grade quote (cents/lb)
Source: All prices are from USDA, Ag Marketing Service