Crop Market Update – Aug 30, 2013


Cereal Grains & Soybeans (by: Brian Williams)

Corn harvest is underway in Mississippi with 14% of the crop in as of Sunday and significant progress expected throughout this week. Crop conditions in Mississippi look good this week with 71% of the corn crop rated good or excellent and 73% of the soybean rated good or excellent. As a whole, the U.S. corn crop continues to develop more slowly than normal with 23% of the crop dented compared to a 5-yr average of 45%. Continue reading “Crop Market Update – Aug 30, 2013”

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Crop Market Update – Aug 9, 2013


Cereal Grains & Soybeans

Prices continued their downward slide for corn and wheat this week. Favorable weather has helped to keep new crop corn and soybean conditions rated 60-65% good or excellent. Meanwhile, many producers continue to empty grain bins with the expectation of an abundant harvest this year. Corn harvest is expected to begin in parts of the Southeast over the next couple of weeks as well. Mississippi’s corn crop is a bit behind the normal pace with 13% mature compared to a 5-year average of 41%, but 62% of the crop is rated in good or excellent condition. Strong imports from China have helped to stop the slide in soybean prices and Monday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate is expected to revise soybean production down on the year. Soybean progress is behind normal with 39% of the U.S. crop setting pods this week compared to a 5-year average of 51%, but the forecast calls for a timely rain in many of the major soybean-producing areas. Winter wheat harvest is just ahead of the 5-year average with 87% of the crop harvested compared to a 5-year average of 86%.

Cotton

Prices got a major boost Wednesday as the U.S. dollar weakened, making our goods less expensive. This brought about some buying from global partners, including China. Further, cotton futures on China’s exchange improved adding to the positive sentiment. The sentiment continued Thursday, as prices were mildly higher, before Friday brought about some cooling down within the market.

Market Summary:

Nearby Futures Contract This Friday Last Friday % Change
Corn $4.65 $4.76 -2.31%
Soybeans $12.18 $12.12 0.50%
Cotton 89.05 85.32 4.37%
Wheat $6.07 $6.27 -3.19%
Rice $15.19 $15.80 -3.86%
Source: Corn, soybean, wheat, and rice prices are from the CMEGroup; Cotton price is from the Intercontinental Exchange
Prices are $/bu for corn, soybeans and wheat, cents/pound for cotton, and $/cwt for rice

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Miss. Cash Quote This Friday Last Friday % Change
Corn $5.17 $5.71 -9.46%
Soybeans $12.17 $11.99 1.50%
Cotton 86.30 82.57 4.52%
Wheat $6.07 $6.27 -3.19%
Note: Corn, soybeans, and wheat are from Greenville, MS ($/bu); Cotton is the South Delta base grade quote (cents/lb)
Source: All prices are from USDA, Ag Marketing Service

Crop Market Update: Week Ending Jul 12, 2013


Warm, dry conditions in the Corn Belt along with Thursday’s WASDE report have been the biggest market drivers this week. Corn production was revised lower in the July WASDE report on lower expected harvested acres; however ending stocks were revised up 10 million bushels from last month’s estimate to 1.87 billion bushels. Nearby September corn futures were down sharply on the day but 20 cents higher on the week. The U.S. and Mississippi corn crops both look good at this point, with 68% of the U.S. crop and 66% of the Mississippi crop rated good or excellent, but hot, dry weather is expected over the next week in parts of the Corn Belt at the same time a significant portion of the corn crop in the area is expected to begin silking. Soybean ending stocks were estimated at 295 million bushels in the latest WASDE report, about 25 million bushels more than expected. Soybean conditions are looking great in Mississippi as well as across the country with 74% of the Mississippi crop rated good or excellent and 77% of the U.S. crop in the same category. August soybean futures closed down sharply on Friday, but were 16 cents higher on the week. While the USDA has been positive about the outlook of both the corn and soybean crop, the market seems to still have a weather premium in response to the planting delays earlier this spring. While the warm, dry week ahead could impact corn yields, soybeans should not be impacted much for at least another couple of weeks, bringing plenty of opportunity for rain showers to pass through. The winter wheat crop continues to look better than expected with the USDA boosting expected yields by 1.6 bu/acre over last month. However, ending stocks were revised 83 million bushels lower, mostly as a result of increased export sales. acreage is reported as 2% higher than the previous estimate as well. September wheat futures closed 21 cents higher on the week.

Small Grains Prices ($/bu except were noted)

July 5, 2013

July 12, 2013

Change

Nearby Corn Futures

$5.25

$5.45

+$0.20

Mississippi Corn*

$6.28

$6.56

+$0.28

Nearby Soybeans Futures

$14.32

$14.29

-$0.03

Mississippi Soybeans*

$15.79

$15.95

+$0.16

Nearby Chicago Wheat Futures

$6.60

$6.81

+$0.21

Mississippi Wheat*

$6.29

$6.49

+$0.20

Sep Rough Rice Futures ($/cwt)

$14.955

$15.205

+$0.25

*Mississippi prices are average July 11, 2013 prices from Greeneville, Belzoni, Greenwood, and Indianola.

U.S. Cotton ending stocks for the upcoming year were projected at 2.90 million bales yesterday (Jul 11) by USDA. Production was unchanged from last month despite a decrease in projected harvested acres as yield was raised. Lackluster exports continue to be a drag on the price, but a few days of a weaker U.S. currency (on Mon, Wed, and Thu) did attempt to provide support.

Cotton Prices (cents/pound)

June 21, 2013

July 12, 2013

Change

Oct Cotton Futures

86.43

85.13

-1.30

Dec Cotton Futures

85.03

85.08

+0.05

South Delta Cotton Quote

83.43

82.13

-1.30

Note: Futures prices are from ICE and cash quote is from USDA, AMS

June Supply and Demand Report Recap


The United States Department of Agriculture along with the World Ag Outlook Board released their monthly World Agriculutral Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report June 12 around lunch. The report is the second to provide insight on USDA’s projections for the 2013 U.S. crop (new crop). Many expected some alterations due the slow pace to planting as a result of the cool temps and seemingly never ending rain. Continue reading “June Supply and Demand Report Recap”

Crop Market Update: Week Ending Jun 07, 2013


Monday’s crop progress had corn planting at 91% complete, just 4% behind the 5-year average. Soybeans are still behind schedule with planting progress currently at 57% for the U.S. crop and 74% for the Mississippi crop. That compares to 5 year averages of 74% and 93% respectively. July soybean futures closed up a penny on the day and continued its upward climb finishing up 18 cents on the week as planting progress remains behind normal. July corn finished up 3 cents at $6.66 to close the week 4 cents higher. Nearby July wheat futures closed up down a penny Friday to close the week 9 cents lower at $6.96/bu. Mississippi’s wheat harvest is not underway with 1% of the crop harvested, although progress is well behind normal. Last year at this time, 83% of the Mississippi wheat crop was harvested and the 5-year average is near 37%. 

Small Grains Prices

May 31, 2013

June 7, 2013

Change

Nearby Corn Futures

$6.62

$6.66

$0.04

Mississippi Corn*

$7.07

$6.98

-$0.09

Nearby Soybeans Futures

$15.10

$15.28

$0.18

Mississippi Soybeans*

$15.33

$15.35

$0.02

Nearby Chicago Wheat Futures

$7.05

$6.96

-$0.09

Mississippi Wheat*

$6.99

$6.96

-$0.03

Nearby Rice Futures**

$15.30

$15.86

+$0.56

*Mississippi prices are average June 6, 2013 prices from Greeneville, Belzoni, Greenwood, and Indianola.

Note: Prices are $/bu for corn, soybeans and wheat; Rice price is $/cwt. Futures prices are from CMEGroup and Mississippi cash prices are from USDA, AMS

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Cotton moved higher on the week. Spirits were lifted following last Friday’s improved consumer sentiment report and a weaker U.S. dollar which both bode well for cotton demand. On Thursday, improved export sales kept those spirits lifted.

Cotton Prices (cents/pound)

May 31, 2013

June 7, 2013

Change

July Cotton Futures

79.36

84.86

5.50

December Cotton Futures

82.06

85.18

3.12

South Delta Cotton Quote*

77.11

83.11

6.00

Note: Futures prices are from ICE and cash quote is from USDA, AMS

Corn, Soybean and Wheat Market Update


— From Dr. Brian Williams —

It has been a slow news week for small grains markets. Nearby May wheat futures closed up 6 cents Friday to close the week at $7.09/bu. Export news for the week has been positive, but wheat has finished lower on the week compared. May corn finished up 7 cents at $6.52, but is down 6 cents on the week. Planting progress has been slow in the Corn Belt with cold, wet weather across much of the region. Current corn plantings are at 2% compared to a five year average of 7%. Soybeans closed down on the day with May soybeans finishing down 2 cents at $14.28. Mississippi corn planting was 54% complete as of Sunday, significantly behind the 5-year average of 82%. With recent rains in Mississippi as well as continued wet conditions throughout this week in the Midwest, it does not look like planting progress will gain much ground in the short term.

Small Grains Prices

April 12, 2013

April 19, 2013

Change

Nearby Corn Futures

$6.58

$6.52

-$0.06

Mississippi Corn*

$6.67

$6.53

-$0.14

Nearby Soybeans Futures

$14.13

$14.28

$0.15

Mississippi Soybeans*

$14.26

$14.44

$0.18

Nearby Chicago Wheat Futures

$7.14

$7.09

-$0.05

Mississippi Wheat*

$6.98

$6.86

-$0.12

*Mississippi prices are average April 18, 2013 prices from Greeneville, Belzoni, Greenwood, and Indianola.

April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates: Crop Recap


Soybeans

U.S. ending stocks for soybeans remained unchanged in the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report at 125 million bushels. Analysts were expecting the ending stocks number to be 137 million bushels, with a range from 107 to 160 million bushels, given the slightly higher quarterly stocks number from last month that indicated demand had been slipping. Soybean crush and exports were both revised up slightly from last month’s report, however those changes were offset by an equal decrease in residual use. Given the offsetting changes, the stocks-to-use ratio remained unchanged at 4.1%. Soybeans futures were largely unaffected by the report with the nearby May contract closing down 2.6 cents at $13.92/bu.

Corn

USDA’s April projections of U.S. corn ending stocks for the 2012/13 marketing year were pegged at 757 million bushels, 135 million higher than March projections. This was, however, lower than the average pre-report expectation of 824 million bushels, but following last month’s surprising Grain Stocks number analysts were all over the board with guesses for this month’s WASDE ending stocks (expectations ranged from 625 to 925 million bushels). Much of the difference comes from the 150 million bushel decrease in projected feed and residual use, although industrial use and ethanol use were both revised higher. Corn exports were projected to be 25 million bushels lower compared to last month’s projections. With many traders still recovering from the shock of the stocks report a couple of weeks ago and thus uncertain of where USDA would peg this month’s number, it is unsurprising that corn futures markets had a minimal response to the latest WASDE report. Corn’s stocks versus use currently sits at 6.8% compared to 5.6% last month. Global corn ending stocks were raised to 125.29 million metric tons, with the U.S. and China each accounting for 40% of the increase. May Corn contracts finished up 4.6 cents today at $6.49/bu.

Cotton

Supply and demand estimates for cotton, while not mundane, were largely in-line with last month’s projections. Interestingly yield was raised 14 pounds per acre to 880 based on information from the final Cotton Ginnings report. This was partially offset by an increase in demand. Exports were raised 250,000 bales to 13.0 million. Ending stocks remained unchanged at 4.2 million bales and the ratio of stocks versus use is now at 25.6% compared to 26.0% last month. Analysts had expected the ending stock number to drop to 4.1 million bales due to the higher pace of exports, but the larger yield appears to have not been accounted for. Global cotton ending stocks were raised to 82.45 million bales, up from 81.74. China’s ending stocks are currently projected at 45.61 million bales, up 1.5 million due to increased imports, and therefore they now account for 55.3% of total world ending stocks. Cotton futures still managed to end the day higher with the nearby May contract ending the day at 85.37 cents/pound, up 0.73, and December ended at 86.57 cents/pound, up 0.78.

Wheat

Today’s WASDE report appears to have had the most significant impact on the wheat market. Ending stocks for all wheat were revised up 15 million bushels compared to last month at 731 million bushels. The additional bushels are a result of lower feed and residual use than expected, however all other numbers remained unchanged. The higher than expected wheat ending stocks pushed the May wheat contract down 12 cents on the day to close at $6.96/bu

Rice

All rice ending stocks projections were raised to 34.1 million hundredweight, up from 29.1 last month. The increase stems from larger long- and medium/short-grain stocks, but with long-grain getting the bigger bump. Domestic demand is the culprit of the higher stocks; with this number decreasing from 125 million hundredweight in last month’s report to 120 projected this month. Rough rice futures ended mildly lower on the day with the nearby May contract closing at $15.675/cwt, down 3 cents/cwt, and the September contract finished at $15.42/cwt, down 4.5 cents/cwt.