Crop Market Update – Sept 20, 2013


Cereal Grains & Soybeans (by: Brian Williams)

The September prevented planting acreage report was released by the FSA earlier this week. While the report did not contain many surprises with only minor changes from last month’s report, it does indicate that next month we may see some changes in the WASDE report. The FSA currently estimates that there were 3.57 million prevented corn acres and a total of 91.4 million planted acres. This is much less than the WASDE’s estimate of 97.4 million planted acres. Corn harvest is underway in several areas of the country with about 4% of the U.S. crop now out of the field. Continue reading “Crop Market Update – Sept 20, 2013”

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Crop Market Update – Aug 23, 2013


Cereal Grains & Soybeans (by: Brian Williams)

Crop scouts have been touring much of the corn belt this week and their findings have been a major driver in crop prices this week. The corn crop looks very good in much of Illinois and Indiana, while Iowa has quite a bit of variability. Despite the variability in Iowa, yields there are expected to be above the trend line. Soybeans are a different story. Scouts have been finding lower pod counts than a year ago in many areas, which is bringing some concern about yields at harvest. At the same time, soybean demand is remaining relatively strong providing a boost to prices over the last week. Despite the bearish information coming in about the corn crop, it appears that the corn market is following soybeans and has had a positive tone this week. Corn harvest is underway in Mississippi, with 6% of the crop harvested as of Sunday evening. This led to Mississippi cash prices moving lower in spite of higher futures prices.

Cotton (by: John Michael Riley)

Cotton prices were dealt blow this week and fell about 10 cents per pound.  The December futures price pushed above 93 cents last Friday, a contract high. On Tuesday, whispers of China releasing some of their massive reserves. Then, weakness in the general economy as well as a stronger U.S. dollar added pressure on Wednesday. Prices stabilized the remainder of the week.

Recap of Futures Markets:

Nearby Futures Contract This Friday Last Friday % Change
Corn $4.95 $4.73 4.65%
Soybeans $13.65 $12.83 6.39%
Cotton 84.08 93.32 -9.90%
Wheat $6.34 $6.31 0.48%
Rice $15.56 $15.19 2.44%
Source: Corn, soybean, wheat, and rice prices are from the CMEGroup; Cotton price is from the Intercontinental Exchange
Prices are $/bu for corn, soybeans and wheat, cents/pound for cotton, and $/cwt for rice

Recap of Mississippi Cash Prices:

Miss. Cash Quote This Friday Last Friday % Change
Corn $4.83 $5.07 -4.73%
Soybeans $13.57 $13.16 3.12%
Cotton 81.49 90.65 -10.10%
Wheat $6.01 $6.08 -1.15%
Note: Corn, soybeans, and wheat are averages from Greenville, Belzoni, Greenwood, and Indianola, MS ($/bu); Cotton is the South Delta base grade quote (cents/lb)
Source: All prices are from USDA, Ag Marketing Service

Crop Market Update – Aug 16, 2013


Cereal Grains & Soybeans (by: Brian Williams)

Two bullish reports this week have helped boost prices for corn and soybeans. While many analysts were expecting an increase in corn production in this month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), USDA revised yields and production downward. In addition, the Farm Service Agency released their first estimate of planted acres on Thursday. According to FSA’s estimates, planted acres are at 88.5 million acres, about 600,000 acres less than the estimated harvested acres in the WASDE report. Soybean yields were revised downward in the August WASDE report, as were planted acres. Both were well below analysts’ expectations prior to the report. The FSA reported nearly 1.6 million prevented acres for the soybean crop and planted acres are estimated to be slightly over 72 million acres, well below the 76.4 million harvested acres in the WASDE report. There were no big surprises concerning the wheat crop. With much of the harvest in already, acreage remained unchanged in the WASDE report and the only revision was a 25 million bushel increase in exports. Continue reading “Crop Market Update – Aug 16, 2013”

Crop Market Update: Week Ending Jul 12, 2013


Warm, dry conditions in the Corn Belt along with Thursday’s WASDE report have been the biggest market drivers this week. Corn production was revised lower in the July WASDE report on lower expected harvested acres; however ending stocks were revised up 10 million bushels from last month’s estimate to 1.87 billion bushels. Nearby September corn futures were down sharply on the day but 20 cents higher on the week. The U.S. and Mississippi corn crops both look good at this point, with 68% of the U.S. crop and 66% of the Mississippi crop rated good or excellent, but hot, dry weather is expected over the next week in parts of the Corn Belt at the same time a significant portion of the corn crop in the area is expected to begin silking. Soybean ending stocks were estimated at 295 million bushels in the latest WASDE report, about 25 million bushels more than expected. Soybean conditions are looking great in Mississippi as well as across the country with 74% of the Mississippi crop rated good or excellent and 77% of the U.S. crop in the same category. August soybean futures closed down sharply on Friday, but were 16 cents higher on the week. While the USDA has been positive about the outlook of both the corn and soybean crop, the market seems to still have a weather premium in response to the planting delays earlier this spring. While the warm, dry week ahead could impact corn yields, soybeans should not be impacted much for at least another couple of weeks, bringing plenty of opportunity for rain showers to pass through. The winter wheat crop continues to look better than expected with the USDA boosting expected yields by 1.6 bu/acre over last month. However, ending stocks were revised 83 million bushels lower, mostly as a result of increased export sales. acreage is reported as 2% higher than the previous estimate as well. September wheat futures closed 21 cents higher on the week.

Small Grains Prices ($/bu except were noted)

July 5, 2013

July 12, 2013

Change

Nearby Corn Futures

$5.25

$5.45

+$0.20

Mississippi Corn*

$6.28

$6.56

+$0.28

Nearby Soybeans Futures

$14.32

$14.29

-$0.03

Mississippi Soybeans*

$15.79

$15.95

+$0.16

Nearby Chicago Wheat Futures

$6.60

$6.81

+$0.21

Mississippi Wheat*

$6.29

$6.49

+$0.20

Sep Rough Rice Futures ($/cwt)

$14.955

$15.205

+$0.25

*Mississippi prices are average July 11, 2013 prices from Greeneville, Belzoni, Greenwood, and Indianola.

U.S. Cotton ending stocks for the upcoming year were projected at 2.90 million bales yesterday (Jul 11) by USDA. Production was unchanged from last month despite a decrease in projected harvested acres as yield was raised. Lackluster exports continue to be a drag on the price, but a few days of a weaker U.S. currency (on Mon, Wed, and Thu) did attempt to provide support.

Cotton Prices (cents/pound)

June 21, 2013

July 12, 2013

Change

Oct Cotton Futures

86.43

85.13

-1.30

Dec Cotton Futures

85.03

85.08

+0.05

South Delta Cotton Quote

83.43

82.13

-1.30

Note: Futures prices are from ICE and cash quote is from USDA, AMS

July Supply/Demand Estimates Recap


Soybeans

The 2013/14 crop saw a few changes from last month’s report should be considered slightly bearish even as the market moved higher. Planted acres were revised up 0.6 million acres from last month to reflect the June Acreage report. Harvested acres were revised up by 0.7 million acres while yield estimates remained the same. Soybean production was estimated to be 3.4 billion bushels, about 30 million bushels higher than the June estimate due to the higher acreage number. Soybean use also remained unchanged with ending stocks estimated to be around 295 million bushels. Most pre-report estimates were expecting a slight increase in ending stocks, even so the USDA estimate was 25 million bushels higher than analysts thought. As with corn, soybeans are trading higher on the day, shrugging off the bearish report with weather conditions worsening in a few important soybean-producing states.

Soybeans (incl. Crush) 2012-2013 Marketing Year 2013-2014 Marketing Year
Jul Estimate Change vs Jun Change vs 2011/12 vs Pre-Report Jul Estimate Change vs Jun Change vs 2011/12 vs Pre-Report
Planted Acres (mil. ac.) 77.20 0.0% 2.9% 77.70 0.8% 0.6%
Harvested Acres (mil. ac.) 76.10 0.0% 3.1% 76.90 0.9% 1.1%
Yield (bu/ac) 39.60 0.0% -5.5% 44.50 0.0% 12.4%
Production (mil. bu.) 3,015 0.0% -2.6% 3,420 0.9% 13.4%
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,209 0.0% -3.5% 3,560 0.8% 10.9%
All Domestic Use (mil. bu.) 1,382.50 -0.1% -4.5% 1,435.83 0.0% 3.9%
SB Exports (mil. bu.) 1,330.00 0.0% -2.3% 1,450.00 0.0% 9.0%
Crush Exports (mil. bu.) 386.67 0.9% 10.8% 361.67 0.0% -6.5%
Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,085.00 0.0% -2.2% 3,264.00 0.0% 5.8%
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 125.00 0.0% -26.0% 3.3% 295.00 11.3% 136.0% 9.3%
Stocks/Use 4.1% 9.0%

 

Corn

The July WASDE report can be considered as slightly bearish. The projected corn production is revised down slightly at 13.95 billion bushels, down 50 million from last month’s estimate. Planted acres were revised up 0.1 million acres from last month, but is consistent with the June Acreage report. Despite this, the decreased production comes from lower expected harvested acres, which were revised down 400,000 acres from last month. Ending stocks were revised up from last month by 10 million bushels, with a 50 million bushel decrease in both feed use and exports. Many industry experts were expecting ending stocks to fall to around 1.87 billion bushels, lower than the reported 1.96 billion bushels. Although this report appears to be somewhat bearish for corn prices, both new and old crop futures were trading higher on the day on news of hot dry weather in the Western Corn Belt.

Corn: 2012-2013 Marketing Year 2013-2014 Marketing Year
Jul Estimate Change vs Jun Change vs 2011/12 vs Pre-Report Jul Estimate Change vs Jun Change vs 2011/12 vs Pre-Report
Planted Acres (mil. ac.) 97.2 0.0% 5.8% 97.4 0.1% 0.2%
Harvested Acres (mil. ac.) 87.4 0.0% 4.0% 89.1 -0.4% 1.9%
Yield (bu/ac) 123.4 0.0% -16.2% 156.5 0.0% 26.8%
Production (mil. bu.) 10,780 0.0% -12.8% 13,950 -0.4% 29.4%
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 11,929 0.1% -11.7% 14,709 -0.6% 23.3%
All Domestic Use (mil. bu.) 10,500 0.5% -4.4% 11,500 -0.4% 9.5%
Exports (mil. bu.) 700 0.0% -54.6% 1,250 -3.8% 78.6%
Total Use (mil. bu.) 11,200 0.4% -10.6% 12,750 -0.8% 13.8%
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 729.0 -5.2% -26.3% 1.0% 1,959.0 0.5% 168.7% 4.5%
Stocks/Use 6.5% 15.4%

 

Cotton

New crop cotton stocks were raised to 2.9 million bales from last month’s projection of 2.6, largely due to increased carry-over from the 2012/13 marketing year. Current marketing year exports have been below the needed pace for some time and especially since last month’s supply/demand report. As a result, USDA lowered the estimate for 2012/13 cotton exports from 13.6 million bales last month to 13.3 in the current report. This was the only change to old crop cotton and led to higher carry-over into the 2013/14 crop year. The new crop projections showed higher planted acres (from the June Acreage report) but smaller acres harvested (with an expected increase in Texas abandonment). Yield was raised to equally offset the lower harvested acres and thus production was unchanged (interpret this as: those abandoned acres in Texas would have been low yielding). There were no changes to the projections for 2013/14 crop demand, thus the old crop carry-over was the source of the higher ending stock number for 2013/14 cotton.

Globally, 2013/14 ending stocks were raised 1.85 million bales from last month’s estimate to 94.34 largely as a result of higher stocks in India (up 1.15 mb to 8.39). China’s stocks number was unchanged at 58.93 (62.5% of total world ending stocks).

Cotton: 2012-2013 Marketing Year 2013-2014 Marketing Year
Jul Estimate Change vs Jun Change vs 2011/12 Jul Estimate Change vs Jun Change vs 2011/12 vs Pre-Report
Planted Acres (mil. ac.) 12.31 0.0% -16.5% 10.25 2.2% -16.7%
Harvested Acres (mil. ac.) 9.37 0.0% -1.0% 7.80 -3.7% -16.8%
Yield (lbs/ac) 887 0.0% 12.3% 831 3.9% -6.3%
Production (mil. bales) 17.32 0.0% 11.2% 13.50 0.0% -22.1% -1.7%
Total Supply (mil. bales) 20.67 0.0% 13.6% 17.41 1.8% -15.8%
All Domestic Use (mil. bales) 3.45 0.0% 4.5% 3.50 0.0% 1.4%
Exports (mil. bales) 13.30 -2.2% 13.6% 11.00 0.0% -17.3%
Total Use (mil. bales) 16.75 -1.8% 11.6% 14.50 0.0% -13.4%
Ending Stocks (mil. bales) 3.90 8.3% 16.4% 2.90 11.5% -25.6% -1.7%
Stocks/Use 23.3% 20.0%

 

Wheat

The projected harvested acres for wheat were revised down by a million acres in the July WASDE report. The expected yield was raised by 1.6 bu/acre for a 34 million bushel boost in wheat production. Feed and residual use was revised down by 10 million bushels but exports were increased by 100 million bushels. Domestic wheat use remained unchanged, however exports were revised up 50 million bushels to 975 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks were revised down by 83 million bushels to 576 million bushels, significantly lower than pre-report expectations of 624 million bushels. The bullish report has positively impacted wheat prices with September futures closing up four cents on the day.

Wheat: 2012-2013 Marketing Year 2013-2014 Marketing Year
Jul Estimate Change vs Jun Change vs 2011/12 vs Pre-Report Jul Estimate Change vs Jun Change vs 2011/12 vs Pre-Report
Planted Acres (mil. ac.) 55.70 0.0% 2.4% 56.50 0.2% 1.4%
Harvested Acres (mil. ac.) 49.00 0.0% 7.2% 45.70 -2.1% -6.7%
Yield (bu/ac) 46.30 0.0% 5.9% 46.20 3.6% -0.2%
Production (mil. bu.) 2,269 0.0% 13.5% 2,114 1.6% -6.8%
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,134 -0.1% 5.4% 2,962 0.2% -5.5%
All Domestic Use (mil. bu.) 1,407 1.9% 19.0% 1,311 -0.8% -6.8%
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,009 -0.1% -3.9% 1,075 10.3% 6.5%
Total Use (mil. bu.) 2,416 1.0% 8.3% 2,386 3.9% -1.2%
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 718 -3.8% -3.4% 0.0% 576 -12.6% -19.8% -7.7%
Stocks/Use 29.7% 24.1%

 

Rice

Rice: 2012-2013 Marketing Year 2013-2014 Marketing Year
Jul Estimate Change vs Jun Change vs 2011/12 Jul Estimate Change vs Jun Change vs 2011/12
Planted Acres (mil. cwt.) 2.70 0.0% 0.4% 2.47 -5.4% -8.5%
Harvested Acres (mil. cwt.) 2.68 0.0% 2.3% 2.45 -5.4% -8.6%
Yield (lbs/ac) 7,449 0.0% 5.4% 7,330 0.2% -1.6%
Production (mil. cwt.) 199.50 0.0% 7.9% 179.50 -5.3% -10.0%
Total Supply (mil. cwt.) 261.60 -0.2% 3.5% 235.60 -4.3% -9.9%
All Domestic Use (mil. cwt.) 120 0.0% 9.0% 112 -2.6% -6.7%
Exports (mil. cwt.) 109 0.9% 7.3% 95 -3.1% -12.8%
Total Use (mil. cwt.) 229 0.4% 8.2% 207 -2.8% -9.6%
Ending Stocks (mil. cwt.) 32.60 -4.4% -20.7% 28.60 -13.6% -12.3%
Stocks/Use 14.2% 13.8%

Crop Market Update (with Acreage and Stocks report) – Week Ending June 28


Friday’s acreage report came as a big surprise to many. Most analysts were expecting corn acreage to be revised down about 2 million acres to 95.34 million; however the USDA’s acreage report estimated corn acres at 97.38 million. This was a slight increase over the March Prospective Plantings report of 97.28, which has been the baseline since that time. National corn stocks were reported at 2.76 billion bushels, slightly below the expected 2.85 billion bushels. Nearby July corn futures were impacted by the grain stocks report, closing up 12 cents on the day but new crop futures took a hit in response to the acreage report with September 2013 corn futures closing down 25 cents and December corn closing down 27 cents. With an acreage report estimate of 77.73 million acres, soybeans came in slightly below the expected 78.02 million acres predicted by many analysts but above the 77.13 million acres reported in the June WASDE report (which had been unchanged from March’s report). Soybean stocks came in slightly lower than expected at 435 million bushels compared to the pre-report guess of 441 million bushels. July soybean futures responded positively the reports, closing up 16 cents on the day to finish off a strong week that saw an increase of 71 cents. September new crop soybeans closed down 14 cents on the day. The wheat acreage estimate was surprisingly higher than expected as well. USDA reported all wheat acres at 56.53 million acres compared to an expectation of 55.75 million acres. Winter wheat acreage is reported as 2% higher than the previous estimate as well. Wheat in storage was 32 million bushels lower than analysts expected at 718 million bushels. The reports negatively impacted wheat markets with nearby July wheat finishing down 15 cents on the day and 50 cents on the week.

Small Grains Prices

June 21, 2013

June 28, 2013

Change

Nearby Corn Futures

$6.61

$6.79

$0.18

Mississippi Corn*

$6.97

$7.02

$0.05

Nearby Soybeans Futures

$14.93

$15.64

$0.71

Mississippi Soybeans*

$15.01

$15.67

$0.66

Nearby Chicago Wheat Futures

$6.98

$6.48

-$0.50

Mississippi Wheat*

$6.69

$6.35

-$0.34

*Mississippi prices are average June 27, 2013 prices from Greeneville, Belzoni, Greenwood, and Indianola.

Cotton acres were reported at 10.251 million (10.025 for Upland and 0.226 for Pima). This compares to March’s Prospective Plantings acreage number of 10.026 million (9.820 for Upland and 0.206 for Pima). Still, nearby cotton continued to slide. The harvest time December contract moved mostly sideways during the week.

Cotton Prices (cents/pound)

June 21, 2013

June 28, 2013

Change

July Cotton Futures

85.15

82.71

-2.44

December Cotton Futures

84.64

83.80

-0.84

South Delta Cotton Quote*

82.68

82.61

-0.07

Note: Futures prices are from ICE and cash quote is from USDA, AMS

Crop Market Update: Week Ending Jun 14, 2013


Monday’s crop progress had corn planting at 95% complete, just 3% behind the 5-year average. Soybeans are still behind schedule with planting progress currently at 71% for the U.S. crop and 88% for the Mississippi crop. That compares to 5 year averages of 84% and 96% respectively. July soybean futures closed up 6 cents on the day to finish off a tough week that saw a decline of 12 cents. The June World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report had very few changes concerning this year’s soybean crop. July corn finished up 11 cents at $6.55 to close the week 11 cents lower. Part of the decline in corn prices can be attributed to a somewhat bearish WASDE report that was released Wednesday. Many experts were expecting planted acres to be revised down, however they remained unchanged. Wheat yield was revised up by 0.5bu/acre in the WASDE report, partially contributing to the hit wheat took over this week, with nearby futures finishing 16 cents lower. Nearby July wheat futures closed down 4 cents Friday as wheat harvest slowly progresses nationwide. Mississippi’s wheat harvest is about 11% complete, although progress is well behind the 5-year average of 67% at this time of the year.

Small Grains Prices

Jun 7, 2013

Jun 14, 2013

Change

Nearby Corn Futures

$6.66

$6.55

-$0.11

Mississippi Corn*

$7.01

$6.79

-$0.22

Nearby Soybeans Futures

$15.28

$15.16

-$0.12

Mississippi Soybeans*

$15.36

$15.18

-$0.18

Nearby Chicago Wheat Futures

$6.96

$6.80

-$0.16

Mississippi Wheat*

$6.92

$6.82

-$0.10

Nearby Rice Futures

*Mississippi prices are average June 13, 2013 prices from Greeneville, Belzoni, Greenwood, and Indianola.

Note: Prices are $/bu for corn, soybeans and wheat; Rice price is $/cwt. Futures prices are from CMEGroup and Mississippi cash prices are from USDA, AMS

Cotton moved higher on the week with quite a bit of help from Wednesday’s WASDE report. Projected ending stocks in the U.S. were lowered to 2.6 million bales and the market viewed that information favorably.

Cotton Prices (cents/pound)

Jun 7, 2013

Jun 14, 2013

Change

July Cotton Futures

84.86

91.29

6.43

December Cotton Futures

85.18

89.44

4.26

South Delta Cotton Quote

83.11

89.04

5.93

Note: Futures prices are from ICE and cash quote is from USDA, AMS